We took a slight step back after a red-hot start in Week 1, but that still meant going 10-6 last week for a combined total of 21-10-1 on the season. That's not too shabby so far, my friends, but nothing is guaranteed moving forward. All we can do is take this one game at a time: Watch the film, study the numbers, and double-check with your gut when it comes time to make your bets. Or, you know, check with us. Either way!
(Lines courtesy of Bovada.com, as of 9/21, except for Broncos/Bengals, which was unlisted. In that case, we use the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook. Pick listed first, with home team in all caps.)
Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports
Texans (-1.5) over PATRIOTS (Over/under: 40.5)
Only under the most dire of circumstances do you bet against the Patriots at home. Julian Edelman preparing to be the backup QB qualifies. We always have faith in Bill Belichick, but a short week with minimal preparation is probably too much to overcome for even the Patriots guru. (UPDATE: Nope! The Pats cruised, Belichick is a genius, and now we're hoping that Thursday night wasn't a sign of things to come this week.)
Getty ImagesScott Halleran
Cardinals (-4.5) over BILLS (Over/under: 47)
This line started at -5.5 before dipping to its current status -- which means that somewhere out there, a large group of people are putting their faith in Rex Ryan's Bills. I want to play poker with those people.
Getty ImagesStreeter Lecka
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Vikings (Over/under: 43)
Sorry if the picture of Sam Bradford fooled you into thinking I was taking the Vikings here. I just wanted to remind myself that Bradford is actually the QB in Minnesota before I made the pick. The Vikings defense will make you sweat this one, but Carolina should be able to win by a touchdown or more.
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Broncos (+3.5) over BENGALS
It's too early to draw definitive conclusions, but Cincinnati's run defense has been hit-or-miss through two weeks. Denver's defense and rushing attack will be enough to get the Broncos a win on the road.
Denver Post via Getty ImagesHelen H. Richardson
Lions (+7.5) over PACKERS (Over/under: 48)
I'm not sure I'm ready to live in a world where we bet on the Lions over Aaron Rodgers, but the spread is wide enough here to trust Matthew Stafford against a shaky Packers pass defense -- and to trust Detroit to contain Rodgers, to some extent. I can't believe what I just typed, but here we are.
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY SportsRaj Mehta
Ravens (-1) over JAGUARS (Over/under: 47)
This is a bet that falling behind 20-0 to the Browns -- the Browns! -- serves as a necessary wake-up call for the Ravens, and that the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars team we know and love (and make money betting against).
Getty ImagesMatt Hazlett
DOLPHINS (-10) over Browns (Over/under: 42)
I know, friend. I don't like laying 10 points with a team led by Ryan Tannehill, either. But the alternative is betting on Cleveland. While the Browns covered last week, I can't see them managing that feat twice in a row.
David Butler II-USA TODAY SportsDavid Butler II
Washington (+4.5) over GIANTS (Over/under: 46.5)
Kirk Cousins can't be as mediocre in Week 3 as he was the first two weeks (right?), Josh Norman should relish his matchup against Odell Beckham Jr., and above all, I'm not laying almost five points to wager on Eli Manning.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Raiders (+1.5) over TITANS (Over/under: 47)
Unless the Raiders engage some super-secret tanking plan as a misguided effort to make the team less attractive to Las Vegas and thereby stay in Oakland, they should win this one. Take the points.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY SportsCary Edmondson
SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49ers (Over/under: 40)
Seattle's offense has been a trainwreck for the first two weeks of the season. There's no getting around that. We're counting on the defense to set the Seahawks up with a short field on multiple occasions, if not outright score a TD.
BUCCANEERS (-4.5) over Rams (Over/under: 41.5)
The Rams' first win in Los Angeles in over 20 years was a feel-good moment, but L.A. has yet to score a touchdown this season. The Bucs were humbled by the Cardinals in Week 2; a date with the Rams should offer a nice chance to rebound.
Getty ImagesWesley Hitt
COLTS (-3) over Chargers (Over/under: 52)
The Chargers are dangerously close to running out of skill position players just two weeks into the season. Indianapolis' defense isn't in much better shape, though, so don't be surprised if San Diego manages to move the ball -- before ultimately settling for field goals in the red zone.
CHIEFS (-3) over Jets (Over/under: 43)
Because the Jets were up against the Bills last week, we had to call an audible and put our faith in New York. With that horrifying experience behind us, we can all go back to betting against Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's a beautiful thing.
Getty ImagesStacy Revere
Steelers (-3.5) over Eagles (Over/under: 46)
I love Carson Wentz. He's been truly impressive, and he could have a field day against Pittsburgh's secondary. Far more likely, though, is that he has his first real struggles, and Antonio Brown gets back on track after a lackluster Week 2.
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
COWBOYS (-5.5) over Bears (Over/under: 44.5)
The Bears might be the worst team in the league (that doesn't reside in Cleveland). Dallas wins by a touchdown here, as the Dak Prescott love continues unabated.
SAINTS (-3) over Falcons (53.5)
If New Orleans were on the road, we might worry about Drew Brees' ability to keep the Saints in a back-and-forth offensive battle. He's just not the same quarterback away from the friendly confines of New Orleans (and it's not all about the dome, either). At home, Brees should guide the Saints to a win.