Good news, everyone: Week 13 brings the final byes of the 2016 NFL season.
Unfortunately, that means no betting against the Cleveland Browns, which is a shame, but we'll make it through this together with the help of a fun slate of games. We kick things off with the Cowboys and Vikings on Thursday night and go straight through to the Panthers and Seahawks late Sunday.
As for Monday night? Technically, there will be football. Technically. We'll get to that contest in a moment; first, here are your Week 13 lines, picks against the spread and over/unders for all 15 games.
(Lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of 12/1. Pick listed first, with home team in all caps.)
Getty ImagesGetty Images
Cowboys (-2.5) over VIKINGS (Over/under: 44)
Dallas took its first loss against the spread on the season last week. I don't see the Cowboys making it two in a row, especially laying less than a field goal against Minnesota.
Broncos (-4) over JAGUARS (Over/under: 40)
Gary Kubiak got caught between a rock and a hard place last week, tried a high-risk move, and failed. An early Sunday matchup with Jacksonville should help Denver get back on track.
FALCONS (-4) over Chiefs (Over/under: 49)
Kansas City is 28th in the NFL in yards allowed, yet eighth in points against, thanks in part to one of the best special teams units in the league forcing opponents into lengthy drives. The Falcons excel at converting possessions into points, though, and should come away with a seven-point win at home.
Andrew Weber-USA TODAY SportsAndrew Weber
PACKERS (-6.5) over Texans (Over/under: 45.5)
The five-day forecast sees a high of 39 degrees and a significant chance of snow in Green Bay on Sunday. Sounds like perfect conditions for the suddenly surging Packers to get a big win.
Mitchell LeffGetty Images
Eagles (PK) over BENGALS (Over/under: 42)
If you've followed this column this season, you know I like DVOA as my go-to stat for measuring team success. The Eagles are third in that expected value-based, performance-weighted metric; even taking Philly's recent 1-4 stretch into account, they're still a top-10 team (for now). The Bengals, meanwhile, are 21st in that same metric.
I know football is a game of matchups, but you can do the math on this toss-up.
Lions (+6) over SAINTS (Over/under: 53.5)
In a week stuffed with playoff implications, Detroit and New Orleans could steal the show. I'm expecting a Saints win in a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair, with Matthew Stafford leading some kind of fourth-quarter shenanigans to make the final score close.
Getty ImagesThearon W. Henderson
49ers (+1.5) over BEARS (Over/under: 43.5)
I honestly can't get a read on this game, mostly because I'm not sure what to make of Chicago. When all else fails, I'll take the points — even if it means betting on San Francisco for just the second time this season. And speaking of rare gambles ...
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsJeff Curry
Rams (+13.5) over PATRIOTS (Over/under: 44.5)
Finally, in the 13th week of this 2016 season, I'm betting against New England to cover for the first time.
I do like the Patriots to win by double-digits at Foxboro this weekend. Two touchdowns might be pushing it, though, given how banged up Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman appear to be.
Now, I'll sit back and wait for Brady to prove me wrong.
Aaron DosterAaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
RAVENS (-3.5) over Dolphins (Over/under: 49)
The Dolphins are too beat up, especially on the offensive line, and the Ravens defense is too good. Baltimore shuts down Miami's rushing attack and makes it a long day for Ryan Tannehill on Sunday.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY SportsCary Edmondson
RAIDERS (-3) over Bills (Over/under: 49)
Assuming Derek Carr's pinkie injury isn't too big a problem, I'm rolling with Oakland as a field-goal favorite all day long — until the playoffs start, anyway.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsTroy Taormina
Buccaneers (+3.5) over CHARGERS (Over/under: 47.5)
While this one won't have the fireworks of Lions-Saints, both Jameis Winston and Philip Rivers can put points on the board. I like San Diego to win but Tampa Bay to keep it within a field goal.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsGeoff Burke
Redskins (+2.5) over CARDINALS (Over/under: 49)
Much to my surprise, Washington is a solid NFL team this season. Arizona, on the other hand, is as unstable as supposed playoff contenders come. Give me the points.