For whatever reason, the football's starting to get good as the end of the season draws ever closer. That should continue in Week 11, with some compelling matchups in primetime and a number of games that Las Vegas expects to come down to the wire.
After a poor 5-9 Week 10 performance that was bound to happen sooner or later, we're 78-64-4 against the spread on the season. Here are your Week 11 lines, picks and over/unders.
(Lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of 11/17. Pick listed first, with home team in all caps.)
Saints (+3.5) over PANTHERS (Over/under: 52.5)
I think Carolina gets the win on Thursday night, which is why I picked the Panthers in our FOX Sports weekly expert picks column. I also think there's a really good chance New Orleans gets the win, especially if Vegas is expecting a lot of scoring, so I'll take the points.
Getty ImagesKevin C. Cox
Titans (+3) over COLTS (Over/under: 53.5)
Indianapolis' back-and-forth season strikes again. The Colts have alternated wins and losses for the past seven games, most recently beating the Packers prior to a Week 10 bye.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY SportsBrian Spurlock
LIONS (-6.5) over Jaguars (Over/under: 47)
As long as the line is at all reasonable, I'm betting against Jacksonville the rest of the way. The Jaguars are kind of the anti-Patriots in that way.
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY SportsTim Fuller
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Buccaneers (Over/under: 44.5)
Laying that many points with Kansas City is a risky proposition, to be sure, especially after the Chiefs failed to cover a similar spread against the awful Jaguars a couple weeks ago. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay letdown after a blowout win over Chicago last week, though, so I'll take K.C.
GIANTS (-7.5) over Bears (Over/under: 44.5)
I'm always reluctant to roll with Eli Manning, but the Giants' defense should keep Chicago in check on Sunday.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY SportsAaron Doster
Cardinals (PK) over VIKINGS (Over/under: 40)
Both teams boast elite defenses; only one can do anything on offense. Give me the Cardinals, straight up -- and a stiff drink if Bruce Arians abandons the run game in favor of 50/50 throws downfield by Carson Palmer.
Bills (+2.5) over BENGALS (Over/under: 47.5)
As long as Tyrod Taylor takes care of the ball, Cincinnati won't be able to overcome the Bills' outstanding rushing attack. Buffalo escapes with a win, so we're taking the points.
Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY SportsTimothy T. Ludwig
COWBOYS (-7) over Ravens (Over/under: 45)
After that ridiculous cover against Pittsburgh in Week 10, I'm not questioning the betting magic in Dallas. Let's just ride the wave.
Steelers (-8) over BROWNS (Over/under: 47)
Ben Roethlisberger looked like his healthy self against the Cowboys, although he doesn't have a win to show for his return to form. He should have ample opportunity to work out any lingering frustration against Cleveland.
Jason Bridge-USA TODAY SportsJason Bridge
Dolphins (-2.5) over RAMS (Over/under: 39.5)
I was tempted to take Los Angeles here, since the 4-5 Rams are destined to be a .500 team this season. Miami's playing well on both sides of the ball, though, and should win by a field goal on the road.
Patriots (-13) over 49ERS (Over/under: 51.5)
The Tom Brady Revenge Tour hit a bump in the road against the Seahawks, and you know what that means:
A "Tom Brady Revenge Tour" Revenge Tour, naturally, with the first stop in lovely Santa Clara.
Elsa/Getty Images Sport
Eagles (+6.5) over SEAHAWKS (Over/under: 44)
I'm not picking Philly to win outright, but I do think the Eagles' offensive line, special teams and defense will be enough to keep this one close.
REDSKINS (-2.5) over Packers (Over/under: 50.5)
In the same week, I'm taking both Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins to cover as favorites. I don't even know who I am anymore, to be honest. Is nothing sacred?
Getty ImagesMatt Hazlett
RAIDERS (-5.5) over Texans (Over/under: 46)
With a win on Monday night, we could be talking about whether Oakland makes sense as a Super Bowl bet before too long.