The Cleveland Browns are generally expected to select Myles Garrett with the first overall pick in Thursday's NFL Draft, but the team has also seriously considered selecting North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky - which Skip Bayless believes would be a huge mistake.
On Thursday's episode of The "Herd", Colin Cowherd explained why it would be in Trubisky's best interest if he fell down the draft board into the second half of the first round.
Mitchell Trubisky better hope he doesn't go No. 1
“Be very careful about saying you want to be the No. 1 quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, because I’m here to tell you that the No. 1 draft pick, as a quarterback, is overrated.
"Here’s the last 10 head coaches who had the No. 1 pick: Jeff Fisher, fired. Lovie Smith, fired. Chuck Pagano, hot seat. Bill O’Brien, hot seat. Tony Sparano, fired. Lane Kiffin, fired. Jim Schwartz, fired. Steve Spagnuolo, fired. Mike Nolan, fired.
"You do realize when you go No. 1, you’re getting - on average - a coach who’s going to be fired. Translation: chaos. This year’s coach is Hue Jackson, off a 1-15 season. After him is rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan, John Fox - already been fired twice, probably a third time - Doug Marrone and Mike Mularkey.
"Here’s the past seven coaches picking in tonight’s first round: Bill Belichick traded out to Sean Payton, Dan Quinn, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, Jason Garrett, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll. I think I’d rather go to those coaches and be in the bottom of the first round if I was a quarterback.”
Brett DavisBrett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL's elite QBs all have one thing in common
“Be careful what you wish for. The No. 1 pick, if you’re a quarterback, you’re going to make $30 million dollars. That is the value of the contract. Not to get math-y, but after taxes and agent [fees], it’s 15 million bucks and you’re 22 years old. It’s nice, you’ll get a nice home. Cars for the family.
"You’ve got 68 more years to live, bro. It ain’t that life changing. So you get a $30 million dollar [multi-year] contract. You do get the average top quarterback… that’s what they now make in a year, close to it. $23 million, $24 million, $25 million a year. And you know what those guys have? What does Russell Wilson have? Elite coach. Tom Brady? Elite coach. Aaron Rodgers? Elite coach. Drew Brees? Elite coach.”
James GuilloryJames Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Unless Mitch Trubisky is Peyton Manning 2.0, he likely won't succeed in Cleveland
“I’d rather go to a better head coach and a better culture, especially at quarterback. I’d prefer not going No. 1. Find me the last quarterback to go No. 1, stay with the same team and have success for 15 years.
"Peyton Manning. That’s it.
"Because here’s why. When you’re a quarterback, because you’re so high profile when you do go to the first team and fail,it is really hard to re-boot that career. Steve Young did it and Drew Brees did it. And, sort of, Rich Gannon did it.
"But if the first go-round doesn’t work and the world’s watching, people give up on you. They don’t give up on a right tackle. They don’t give up on a Mike linebacker. They don’t give up on a safety, because they’re not paying attention. But the world largely gives up on you if you’re the quarterback and you don’t get it right the first time. Once it goes bad? Hard to re-boot, and it mostly goes bad if you’ve got a bad coach and a losing football culture.”
Landing with bad team can squander any chance of a long career
“This draft doesn’t have a Super Bowl-winning coach until the 11th pick.
"Think about this… Andrew Luck, as good as he is as the No. 1 pick, he’s on his third offensive coordinator, his second general manager, his fourth spleen, and his head coach is on the hot seat.
"And because of talk radio’s growth and sports’ growth and the volume of sports media in America and the pressure, the average quarterback career since 2008 has gone from six years to three. So now you get even less time to show everybody you’re good. And if Jared Goff is bad again this year? It’s over! It’s over. They’re moving on. They may not publicize it, but in the building? They’re moving on.”
Rob KinnanRob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
It's best to fall into the second half of the first round
“Because when you’re a No. 1 quarterback, as we stated, you’re getting a coach who’s below average. You’re getting a flawed roster. You’re getting a losing culture. And you get 30 million bucks. You can make $26 million if you go 27th to a good coach per year by your second contract.
"And the other thing in the NFL, it is very hard to be bad if you have a good offensive line. It really is. If you have a good offensive line in this day and age… there are not many of them.You’re going to win a lot of games. The top offensive line in football, last year, was Dallas. They went 13-3. Oakland was rated as having the second best. 12-4. Green Bay pass blocking? Second-best, 10-6. Pittsburgh? Elite offensive line, 11-5. Even Tennessee, and you don’t love their culture and their coach. 8-8.
"So you’re going to, if you go to a top-four or five team, overwhelmingly go to a coach that’s going to get fired, a losing culture and a bad o-line.”
Ivan Pierre AguirreIvan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports
First-pick money isn't worth it in the long run
“If I was Mitch Trubisky, I’d rather instead of $30 million take $18 million, go to a better coach, a better culture, a better o-line every day of the week. The last No. 1 pick to have sustained success, one team, 15 years, one place is Peyton Manning. So you have to be *that* good to really work.
"Nah. Aaron Rodgers didn’t go No. 1. Brady didn’t go one, Montana didn’t go one, Drew Brees didn’t go one, Big Ben didn’t go one. Look around the league right now. Matt Ryan didn’t go one.
"Cam did. Six years in? Still questions. Be careful what you root for.”