National Basketball Association

New Orleans Pelicans at a disadvantage in the Western Conference playoff race

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:54 p.m. ET

Fansided, Brendon Kleen/FanSided via Pelican Debrief

Despite a nasty loss at home to the Brooklyn Nets last night, the New Orleans Pelicans are only three games out of the Western Conference Playoffs. Do they have a chance?

This post was written by Pelican Debrief Staff Writer Drew Martin, whose author account was unavailable due to technical difficulties.

As we’ve just made it past the halfway mark of the season, it’s about that time when the playoff picture becomes much more clear. Teams that have dominated all season (i.e. the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, and Cleveland Cavaliers) lead the playoff charge, and even the mid-tier teams are essentially a lock to make the playoffs.

While most of the playoff-caliber teams have already set themselves apart from the rest of the pack, it seems that the eighth seed in the Western conference is always a fight to the finish.

There are multiple teams in the mix for that final spot in the playoffs and an inevitable matchup with the high-flying Golden State Warriors. Despite holding a 17-27 record, the New Orleans Pelicans are right in the middle of that mix.

Fortunately for the Pelicans, there is a pretty significant drop-off between who would be the current 7-seed (Oklahoma City: 25-19) and 8-seed (Denver: 17-24), allowing New Orleans to sit just one game back of making the playoffs.

Despite being only one game back, however, the Pelicans face long odds to make a playoff appearance. According to ESPN’s BPI Playoff Odds, New Orleans has just a 6.8% chance of getting the 8-seed. Those odds have them finishing below the Portland Trailblazers, Denver Nuggets, and Sacramento Kings, and ultimately completing the season with a 33-49 record.

The ESPN BPI Playoff Odds are calculated based on an algorithm developed by the ESPN analytics team. It takes into account strength of opponents, pace, and many other factors, but it’s all big picture stuff. As far as the Pelicans go, there are a few specific factors that will play into the team’s fate.

Can AD stay healthy?

This one is obvious. Anthony Davis is one of the best players in the NBA today, and the Pelicans lone superstar. The Brow is averaging 28.8 points per game (3rd in the NBA), 12.1 rebounds per game (7th), and 2.43 blocks per game (2nd), earning him a starting spot in this year’s All-Star game.

Davis has evolved from one of the top young players in this league to one of the top overall players, but his health issues throughout his professional career have been well documented.

This year alone, Davis has suffered an injured hip, thumb, tailbone, leg and sprained foot; the list goes on and on. With him on the court, New Orleans are a playoff-caliber team. Without him on the court, they’re one of the most lackluster teams in the entire league.

Who can step up?

When he’s on the court, AD is going to produce. The problem is that even when he does produce, the Pelicans have had trouble finding support for their All-Star big man.
The most consistent player on the roster aside from Davis is Jrue Holiday, but just recently, rumors began to surface that the Philadelphia 76ers could be interested in giving the point guard a homecoming via free agency signing this summer. Those rumors seem to be unsubstantiated thus far, but it’s worrisome if Holiday does wind up having interest in a change of scenery.

Aside from Holiday, the Pelicans have started to lean more on Tyreke Evans since his return, and will need to get more production from rookie first-rounder Buddy Hield, who has had a very up-and-down start to his pro career.

Without many big names on the roster, the fact remains that someone needs to step up and help Anthony Davis out to give the Pelicans a chance to make a playoff push.

Beating the competition

Over their last 38 games, New Orleans has 14 games against Western conference teams with a chance at the eighth seed (Denver, Portland, Sacramento, Minnesota, Dallas, Phoenix and the Lakers). That’s obviously a large chunk of the remaining schedule.

Winning head-to-head matchups against the other teams that could possibly steal that eighth playoff spot from New Orleans is essential, as it will help the Pelicans maintain a good position in the standings, while also setting the competition back.