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Milwaukee Bucks Game Preview: Jan. 4 at New York Knicks
Dec 5, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) drives for the basket against Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the second quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks could get a little win streak together, depending on how they handle consecutive games against the New York Knicks.
The Milwaukee Bucks are looking good after a huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. A much weaker opponent awaits on Wednesday night, as Milwaukee heads to New York to take on the Knicks.
After that the Bucks will battle the Knicks again, this time in Milwaukee, so if the Bucks can solve New York they can pick up a pair of nice wins. Getting a cushion between Milwaukee’s record and .500 would be great as the All-Star break approaches.
Believe it or not, even without Khris Middleton the Bucks are a mere one game back from the fourth seed in the East! The reason might be more a logjam of mid-level teams in the East than Milwaukee being dominant, but the Bucks could separate themselves from the pack with a few wins in a row here.
Plus the better the team is, the better the shot that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker can make the All-Star game. The young Bucks deserve that honor for the way they’ve balled out this season, and they can help their cases with excellent play in the next month or so.
The Knicks may be without Kristaps Porzingis on Wednesday, which would be huge for Milwaukee’s chance. Porzingis is young, but he’s already New York’s best player, and it’s not that close.
To find out how both the Bucks and the Knicks could prevail on Wednesday night, we’ll go through major keys for both teams followed by a Knick to watch. Finally, then it’s predictions time.
Jan 2, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) drives for the basket around Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jerami Grant (9) during the fourth quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 98-94. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For Milwaukee: Run Up The Score
Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder, the New York Knicks are not great at stopping teams from scoring. The Knicks have given up 111 points or more 17 times, and New York is just 4-13 in those games.
New York gives up over 110 points per 100 possessions according to the team’s defensive rating, meaning if a game is fast enough they’re probably giving up at least close to 111 points. That’s not a great recipe for success for the Knicks.
The Knicks have yet to stop an effective offense: the only teams they’ve held under 100 points are the Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks. In that group, only the Kings are currently better than a bottom-ten offense, and they’re in the bottom 15.
Simply put, the Bucks just need to out-score New York. Especially if Porzingis sits, the Knicks will have trouble doing much about Giannis and Jabari. The Greek Freak tends to get up for opponents like Carmelo Anthony, and Melo’s defense has not been great this year. Bucks fans might get to watch Giannis go off.
Dec 31, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; New York Knicks center Joakim Noah (13) brings the ball upcourt against the Houston Rockets during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For New York: Be Careful On Offense
This works even if Porzingis suits up, but if he doesn’t the Knicks have to be especially careful with the ball. New York can’t win when the opposition scores a ton of points, and the fastest way to give up points to the Bucks is via fast break opportunities.
Carmelo will have trouble stopping Giannis one-on-one in half-court sets, but there aren’t many defenders in the NBA who can slow down the Greek Freak in transition. Melo definitely is not one of them.
Giannis, Jabari, Greg Monroe, Malcolm Brogdon and other Bucks are all constantly looking to poke the ball loose. Milwaukee is well-aware that their not-so-secret weapon is Giannis charging down the floor, and his ability to get from the three-point line to the rim in about three steps means it takes an army to stop him when he’s got space and speed.
If the Knicks let Giannis and Jabari get the ball in transition often, this game might already be sealed. There’s just no stopping those two in fast breaks. New York has Porzingis, but otherwise the Knicks aren’t exactly young and spry.
Jan 2, 2017; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Derrick Rose (25) drives to the basket past Orlando Magic guard D.J. Augustin (14) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Player To Watch: Derrick Rose
The Knicks have been outscored with every member of their rotation on the floor–the team has a negative net rating no matter which player is on the court (aside from 27 glorious minutes of Marshall Plumlee.) The closest they come is Derrick Rose, who the Knicks only get outscored by 1.1 points per 100 possessions with.
Rose still can’t shoot, but he’s done a good job of getting to the rim. He’s not “Old Rose”, but luckily for the Knicks new Rose can ball too. He’s scoring 17.7 points per game while adding 4.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists.
If he could shoot threes, this version of Rose would be a very effective player. He can’t though, as Rose is shooting 25 percent on just 44 attempted threes. The lack of space he provides doesn’t help the Knicks offense, although sometimes his bucket-getting saves the team.
The on/off numbers bear that out. When Rose is out there the Knicks are about one point worse than the other teams they’ve played–when he sits, New York gets outscored by 7.5 points per 100 possessions. No Knick has been more important to the team’s net rating than Rose.
Jan 10, 2016; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) is defended by Milwaukee Bucks small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe (15) during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Finale
The Thunder are better than the Knicks. If the Bucks can stay consistent, they could be able to get a win or two here against the Knicks over the next few days. New York has found ways to get some wins thus far, even though the team has a negative net rating.
Porzingis’ health will obviously have a lot to do with the outcome, but even with him the Bucks should have a good shot. There just aren’t enough forwards on this team who can defend Giannis or Jabari, or both of them at once.
One of the things actually working in Milwaukee’s favor might be that the game is in New York. The young Bucks get excited over things like that, meaning the spotlight might cause Giannis and Jabari to ball out excessively against the Knicks.
Predictions and Leaderboard:
Rohan Katti: Bucks by 8 — 23-10, 370 point differential
Adam Coffman: Bucks by 6 — 21-12, 382 point differential
Tom Pheister: Bucks by 7 — 20-13, 405 point differential
Adam McGee: Bucks by 12 — 20-13, 381 point differential
Jordan Treske: Knicks by 5 — 20-13, 440 point differential
Lukas Harkins: Bucks by 4 — 19-14, 396 point differential
Tim Wray: Knicks by 3 — 19-14, 402 point differential
Ti Windisch: Bucks by 20 — 16-17, 407 point differential
The game is on Wednesday night at 6:30 p.m. CT, and will be televised on Fox Sports Wisconsin.
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