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Gordon Hayward
Miami Heat free agent targets Gordon Hayward and Danilo Gallinari. Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
With 2017 NBA free agency just days away, we break down five potential targets for the Miami Heat, including Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin.
For the first time in years, the Miami Heat find themselves sitting on a ton of cash heading into free agency.
With Chris Bosh's max salary finally set to come off the books, and after Pat Riley decided not to give Dwyane Wade the (somewhat ridiculous) contract he wanted, the Heat will have northwards of $30 million to spend this summer. That number could reach over $40 million with some creative maneuvering by general manager Andy Elisburg.
(Two ways Miami could reach the higher mark: Stretch and waive the final year of Josh McRoberts' deal and decline the team option on Wayne Ellington.)
So what will the Heat choose to do with said cap space? Tough to tell.
In his end-of-year presser, Riley stated the team's primary goal would be to bring back their current core — guys like James Johnson and Dion Waiters, who will be unrestricted free agents on July 1.
But could the Heat's strategy have changed since then? Recent reports state that star free agent Gordon Hayward will grant Riley a meeting the day free agency begins. Meanwhile, various reputable basketball minds believe Blake Griffin could end up in South Florida.
So much for not wanting to go "whale hunting" anymore, huh?
For our purposes, we're going to pretend Riley chooses to be aggressive in landing outside free agents as opposed to bringing his current guys back. Thus, here are five realistic options for Miami in free agency who don't currently play for the Heat.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Honorable Mentions
To save some time, we're going to list various upcoming free agent options here (some realistic and some not), with a brief explanation as to why they missed the cut. Here goes nothing:
Phew. Did you get all that?
Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
5. Joe Ingles, SF
The Heat can employ one of two strategies this offseason: Try to land a "whale" or bring back the present core, with the additions of Bam Adebayo and a healthy Justise Winslow, to try and build on the team that won 30 of its final 41 games.
Even if Riley does go the latter route, he should still have cap room to add another role player or two. One perfect candidate to help fill out his roster is Utah Jazz wing Joe Ingles.
The 29-year-old Australian had the best season of his career in 2016-17, averaging 7.1 points, 3.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.5 threes per game on .452/.441/.735 shooting splits. His raw numbers may not jump off the page, but he's an advanced metrics darling.
On the year, Ingles finished with higher win shares (5.0) than Carmelo Anthony, Brook Lopez or Kristaps Porzingis, while having the 11th-highest Value Over Replacement Player (2.3) among small forwards.
Does that mean he's better than the players he finished above of? No, but it does mean he's a highly valuable contributor, despite his somewhat mundane raw averages.
Even after bringing back Waiters and Johnson, Miami still needs more depth on the wing. Ingles is 6'8″, an elite three-point shooter and an exceptionally underrated defender. He would be the perfect fit for Riley and co.
One caveat though: He's a restricted free agent, meaning Utah could match any potential offer for the sharpshooting Australian wing.
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
4. Taj Gibson, PF/C
Another solid role-playing option is the Oklahoma City Thunder's Taj Gibson. He's far from a game-changer, but he has playoff experience and can aptly fill Miami's hole at power forward.
Last year, the former USC big man averaged 10.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on 51.5 percent shooting. He's not much of a passer and doesn't space the floor, but he and Whiteside would form one of the most vicious defensive frontcourts in the league.
With Gibson on the floor during their five-game playoff run last postseason (an admittedly tiny sample size), the Thunder allowed 18.2 points per 100 possessions fewer than when he was on the bench. What's more, he finished the regular season a respectable 64th in defensive win shares, a metric that measures a player's impact on the less glamorous side of the ball.
Defensive fortitude aside, Gibson isn't totally inept on offense either. In Game 3 of Oklahoma City's opening round matchup against the Houston Rockets, the 6'9″ 4-man dropped 20 points on 10-of-13 shooting, doing his damage in a variety of ways, including post-ups, in transition and with his historically solid midrange jumper.
Gibson wouldn't be more than a 20-minute-a-night player for the Heat, but he could fill the role of starting power forward nicely, and best of all? He'd come a lot cheaper than guys like Ibaka or Ilyasova.
Los Angeles Clippers
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
3. Danilo Gallinari, SF
A slightly bigger fish the Heat could target is Denver Nuggets swingman Danilo Gallinari. In that report we linked to earlier from the Miami Herald, Jackson stated he would be surprised if Miami made some big-time offer to the Italian small forward.
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And all indication, to this point at least, is that that's exactly what Gallinari wants — a payday. Can't really blame him either, as he's a guy who has experienced his fair share of health problems before, and should absolutely look to capitalize on a 2016-17 campaign in which he was able to suit up in 63 games.
Furthermore, in those 63 games, the 6'10" wing excelled. He averaged 18.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists a night while shooting 44.7 percent from the floor and 38.9 percent from beyond the arc.
Gallinari's most important ability, however, is his capacity for drawing fouls. His 0.516 free throw rate ranked 10th among players who suited up in at least 40 games, and once he got to the line, he made an absurd 90.2 percent of his attempts.
His foul-drawing prowess, plus his above-average three-point shooting made him one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA last season (31st overall in offensive points added, per NBA Math.)
Miami could make good use of a player with his strengths, and he'd slot in wonderfully to a lineup featuring Dragic, Waiters, J. Johnson and Whiteside…if he accepts a deal under the max. Whether he'd actually be willing to do that or not is another matter entirely.
Never doubt Riley, though.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. Blake Griffin, PF
The Los Angeles Clippers put a bit of a wrench in this slideshow when they decided to shock the basketball world by trading Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets.
The return they got wasn't terrible per se (Sam Dekker, Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams, Houston's 2018 first round pick and a whole lotta fodder), but it does raise questions about their plans going forward.
Because they received so many serviceable role players in return for the Point God, could they be planning to bring Griffin back, while handing him the reins to the offense in the process? Most signs say yes.
Regardless, because they own their own 2018 first round pick, but lose their 2019 first round pick if they make the playoffs (it's lottery-protected), wouldn't a rebuild make most sense going forward?
Consider that in 2016-17, the Clippers outscored their opponents by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions with Griffin in the game and Paul on the bench (per NBAWowy). On the other hand, with Paul in the game, and Griffin out, that number skyrocketed (no pun intended) to 9.7 points per 100 possessions.
Letting Griffin walk, instead of tying themselves down to being a lower-level playoff team for the next five years may be the most prudent avenue available to Los Angeles.
That, in turn, would allow Riley to pounce on the opportunity and add an elite power forward who would immediately revamp Miami's frontcourt. Yes, Griffin has been injury-prone, but for those saying his production is overrated?
4 players in NBA history have career averages of > 21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists:
Elgin Baylor
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Blake Griffin pic.twitter.com/od8fLz7dIV— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) May 15, 2017
Stop it.
2017 NBA Playoffs
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
1. Gordon Hayward, SF
Without a doubt, Miami's top target in free agency is Gordon Hayward.
The former Butler man is coming off the best year of his career — one in which he averaged 21.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 threes per contest on .471/.398/.844 shooting splits. He was also one of the two main culprits behind Utah making a second round playoff appearance, their first in quite some time.
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Though landing Hayward won't be easy, Miami does have a few factors working in their favor. For one, Brian Windhorst of ESPN recently reported that Utah's small forward might not want a five-year max (a deal that only the Jazz could offer him), because after not making an All-NBA team and qualifying for a super-max deal worth more than $200 million he could sign a three-year max with another team and join free agency when he'd be a 10-year veteran, thus making him eligible for another massive payday.
Since Hayward just missed out on All-NBA honors in 2016-17, he became ineligible for said super max, which, conversely, opened the doors for teams like Miami and the Boston Celtics to swoop in.
Moreover, on Tuesday, Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical mentioned that Hayward plans on meeting with Riley on July 1. We've seen what can happen when the Godfather of South Florida gets into a room with an undecided big-time free agent.
Whatever actually ends up happening is anyone's guess, but at the very least, the Heat are in a good position with their two biggest targets. Can't ask for much more than that heading into free agency.
