Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers: Larry Bird To Blame For Team's Inconsistency

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:26 a.m. ET

Fansided, Joe Hulbert/FanSided via Hoops Habit

Larry Bird has consistently been one of the better personnel managers in the NBA, but his current quest for a pace-and-space offense has created stagnation for the Indiana Pacers.

Since the turn of the century, the Indiana Pacers have been one of the more consistent teams in basketball. On the whole, the Pacers have had good coaches, including Rick Carlisle and Frank Vogel, and they have always been able to put a good roster together.

Since 2000, the Pacers have made the playoffs 12 times and they have always had a reputation as a tough team that drafts well, and competes despite not being blessed with a sizable budget.

The Frank Vogel era was arguably the peak of the Pacers existence in the 21st century, as they ranked in the top five of defensive rating for five consecutive seasons and were very close to overcoming Eric Spoelstra’s Miami Heat.

Vogel had earned himself a reputation as a top ten coach, and he maximized a roster that was really only built to play in one way.

Despite Vogel being one of the best coaches in franchise history, team president Larry Bird decided to part with him this summer, citing a desire to move towards a pace-and-space style of play.

Bird clearly felt that Vogel was not the right man to employ a high-powered offense that made better use of handoffs, spot-up shooting and high pick and rolls.

Vogel reportedly “begged” to retain his job, but his appeals turned out to be in vain as Larry Bird decided that Nate McMillan was the man to lead the franchise to the promised land.

Four months down the line, the Pacers experimentation with small ball has led to highly mixed results. The Pacers are sixth in the East with a 25-22 record, they rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency while running the ninth-fastest offense in the NBA.

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The Pacers have been erratic at times, their longest win streak is four games and they seem to blow hot and cold. Their offense looks good in spells, but they also go through barren patches where Paul George barely manages to get a touch on the ball.

Their defense has also suffered greatly because of the addition of players such as Al Jefferson, who simply doesn’t have the energy to play in Dan Burke’s demanding defensive system.

I am of the opinion that the Pacers are an inconsistent team because of the direction that Larry Bird is trying to take them in.

His vision is flawed and unrealistic with the current roster he has put together and it is no surprise that the Pacers have been unable to look like a competent team for an extended period of time.

A pace-and-space offence requires two things: athleticism and three-point shooters to be able to space the floor and open up driving angles.

To some extent, Larry Bird’s first move was his only positive one, as Jeff Teague has proven to be a clear upgrade on George Hill in an up-tempo offense.

Indiana ranked in the top 10 of pace in the 2016 season, but low in efficiency and this was largely because George Hill couldn’t run the offense efficiently.

His averages in points, assists and rebounds drastically dropped once the Pacers switched to a fast system and it was clear he had to be moved.

Teague ranked in the 98th percentile as a spot-up shooter with Atlanta and while he hasn’t ranked quite as well in Indiana, he has played well for the most part. On the whole, spot-up shooting has been great for Indiana, as they have multiple guys ranking in high percentiles.

Aaron Brooks, Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young, Paul George and C.J. Miles are all ranked in the 80th percentile or higher on spot-up shooting, so the space part of the game is working to some extent.

What is bizarre about these statistics from a Pacers’ point of view is that despite the fact they rank seventh in the league in effectiveness on spot-up shooting, they rank 29th in spot-up attempts.

This, in a way, sums up the Pacers’ season; they are good at something, but they aren’t doing it enough and it is effecting their consistency.

One also has to feel sorry for Frank Vogel, because he was never given Thaddeus Young, who has proven to be the game-changer in many different ways for this offense. He is a Swiss-army-knife type of a player and he has managed to become a reliable player in Nate McMillan’s offense.

Despite the additions of players who can space the floor, the pace side of the game isn’t really working for the Pacers.

The offense is better than last year simply because they have Thaddeus Young as the starting power forward and because they managed to acquire shooters such as Aaron Brooks to replace Chase Budinger and Solomon Hill.

The Pacers are undoubtedly getting more possessions, but their efficiency in doing so has been mediocre at best, despite the fact they have a lot of offensive talent.

When Larry Bird sacrificed defense to improve the offense, he probably expected the offensive rating to place higher than 16th in the NBA.

In reality, all that has happened to Indiana is they have changed from a lopsided team into one that is average at best at both ends of the floor. The Pacers net rating under Frank Vogel was plus-1.7, which was good for 11th place in the NBA.

That net rating has now decreased to minus-1.7, which is good for 20th place in the NBA. If one buys into net rating as a stat that can predict future events, then the Pacers will probably end up dropping out of a playoff spot.

If this happens, then a lot of the blame has to be placed on Larry Bird, because he fired a head coach who was winning games despite having an unfair and unrealistic vision forced upon him.

Larry Bird told Frank Vogel to run a pace-and-space offence while supplying him with Jordan Hill and Lavoy Allen as power forwards and while giving him mediocre cast-off shooters such as Chase Budinger.

Vogel was a dead man walking from the moment Bird tried to play fantasy GM and it is unfortunate that he had to lose his job.

Nate McMillan doesn’t deserve a lot of blame; this team could do with taking more spot-up shots, but it is difficult to do this while running an up-tempo offense.

Generally speaking, spot-up shooting is more common in a half-court offense as the play needs to develop in order to free up shooters. Five of the top nine teams in spot-up attempts rank in the bottom 10 for offensive pace, further proving that McMillan’s hands are tied.