Heat should bounce back in pillow-soft Southeast

by Charley Rosen

Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 15 books about hoops, the current ones being The First Tip-Off: The Incredible Story of the Birth of the NBA and No Blood, No Foul.


Updated: October 11, 2008, 5:52 PM EST 21 comments

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This particular grouping in the Southeast Division consists of dreamers who fantasize about either winning a championship, becoming truly competitive, or escaping the NBA's lower regions. Too bad none of these dreams will come true.

Atlanta Hawks

Was their playoff performance against the Celtics for real or just a false harbinger of excellence?

It's certainly not impossible for the Hawks to challenge the Celtics on a sustained basis. But only if Josh Smith decides that he's ready to be an authentic star and plays with passion from tip to buzzer. Only if Mike Bibby recovers the step that he's lost somewhere along the way. Only if Acie Law is ready to get up and go. Only if Al Horford develops a post-up game. Only if Maurice Evans' aggressive defense and Flip Murray's tricky offense can somehow be combined into one all-around player — Mo Murray.

Only if Joe Johnson can continue being The Man.

That's too many ifs to prevent reality from overcoming fantasy.

The best that can be hoped for: To be playing basketball instead of golf in early May.

Charlotte Bobcats

There's certainly not enough talent on hand to keep Larry Brown as bouncy and enthusiastic as he is these days.

Emeka Okafor does a workmanlike job on the boards, but is paid like a multiple All-Star. Go figure.

Matt Carroll can shoot and hustle. Period.

Jason Richardson is still an outstanding scorer who can do little else.

Adam Morrison's tissue-paper game will give Brown nightmares.

Gerald Wallace is a certified two-way stud.

None of the point guards — rookie D.J. Augustin, Donell Taylor or Raymond Felton — can play up to Brown's lofty expectations.

Put them all together and the Bobcats are mostly clawless.

The best that can be hoped for: Larry Brown gets a severe case of laryngitis and his players are spared being relentlessly, and shrilly, chastised for their every misstep.

Miami Heat

There's no question that the Heat will turn out to be the most improved team in the league.

Because Dwyane Wade appears ready to rejoin the elite circle of NBA super-duper stars. Before he was injured, D-Wade was a better all-around performer than LeBron James was in the same time frame.

Because Udonis Haslem no longer has to score to be effective.

Because Shawn Marion has made a half-hearted commitment to staying put.

Because Michael Beasley apparently has the goods to be a future All-Star.

Yes, they are new and improved, even if Jamal Magliore is relatively immobile. Even if Marcus Blount rarely ventures into the paint. Even if Shaun Livingston may never get back his chops. Even if Marcus Banks can't get along with anybody and Chris Quinn can't run an offense.

The Heat have to get better simply because they can't get any worse.

The best that can be hoped for: To still be in the hunt for a playoff spot in February.

Orlando Magic

This team will need a magician's hat full of tricks to mount a serious challenge to Boston.

Dwight Howard is indeed a glass-eater, but he can't pass, defend, or frighten defenses with his offense.

Tony Battie offers too much finesse and not enough bang for the buck.

Rashard Lewis can score with anybody, but is still a softee in a crowd.

Hedo Turkoglu is the motor of the offense, especially in the clutch.

If Mickael Pietrus can calm down some and be happy with whatever daylight he's allowed, he can be an extremely valuable player.

Keith Bogans is the Magic's only lock-down defender.

Jameer Nelson plays with heart and isn't afraid to take tough shots, but he's too undersized and too slow afoot to play acceptable defense.

The Magic don't have sufficient outside shooting or defense to do anything but dream of glory.

The best that can be hoped for: Paul Pierce, Rip Hamilton, Elton Brand and LeBron James all suffer season-ending injuries before the All-Star game, and the Magic face off against Washington in the conference finals.

Washington Wizards

If only the Wizards didn't have to play defense, they would have a great chance at usurping the Celtics.

Gilbert Arenas played defense in at least one game last year, here's proof. (Ned Dishman / Getty Images)

Which creates more problems for the Wiz: Gilbert Arenas's big mouth, his lack of leadership, or his oft-injured knees? To say nothing of his imaginary defense.

Antawn Jamison does great things with the ball in his hands and not so great things when someone else has possession.

Caron Butler is the only member of Washington's Not-So-Big-Three who's committed to playing defense. That's why he's the best player on the team.

Juan Dixon is not exactly what the Wiz needed — another offensive-minded guard who's just plain mindless at the other end of the court.

Darius Songaila would be a terrific role player on a more balanced ball club.

Is Andray Blatche ready to leave his prolonged adolescence behind and become a grownup player?

If his recent surgery unequivocally proved that Etan Thomas has a heart, perhaps Brendan Haywood needs a similar procedure to come up with the same evidence.

In any case, with Haywood down (wrist injury), the Wiz will be even more of a donut team than ever.

The best that can be hoped for: Avoiding getting swept in the first round of the playoffs.

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