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NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win A Championship In 2017
Nov 20, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18), NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48), NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Carl Edwards (19), NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Joey Logano (22) before the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
NASCAR fans, drivers, teams, owners, sponsors and everyone in between all want the same thing when going into a new season and that’s a championship.
NASCAR is a little different than other sports in that the 40 cars on the track each weekend do not all have the same chance of winning a race or contending for a title. Sure, each car technically has 1/40 chance of winning the race but we all know that’s not the reality of the situation.
Much like when the NASCAR Chase begins, each driver in the Chase has a 1/16 chance of winning a championship. Again, those are the mathematical odds but they are not the realistic odds. Drivers like Tony Stewart, Chris Buescher, Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray all made the Chase in 2016 but nobody actually thought they were going to win a title.
When 2017 begins there will be about 10 drivers with a real chance of winning a championship. Of those 10 I will give you the five that are most likely to get the job done this season.
Nov 19, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) during practice for the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Honorable Mention – Brad Keselowski
It was tough keeping Brad Keselowski outside of the top-five as I went back and forth with him and the next driver on this list. In the end though it was Keselowski’s Chase performances in recent years that are holding him back in my eyes.
Keselowski won a lot of races in 2016 and it should surprise nobody if he wins a lot of races again in 2017. For the majority of 2016, Keselowski was the best Penske car out there, despite Logano making it further in the Chase.
In 2017 Keselowski needs to figure out how to get the job done in the Chase, something he has struggled with since 2014. If Kes can figure out how to find success over the last 10 races, he will be in the final-four in 2017 with a chance to win a championship.
Nov 12, 2016; Avondale, AZ, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) during practice for the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 – Matt Kenseth
The competition over at JGR just got a little lighter with the departure of Carl Edwards. While Edwards leaving JGR doesn’t automatically boost Kenseth into the driver seat as a championship favorite, it also doesn’t hurt.
In 2016 Kenseth had a car that was capable of winning most weekends and if not for some bad luck, he would have won more races than he did last season. Kenseth made it into the Round of Eight in the 2016 Chase and in 2017 he will be looking to take it one step further by pushing into the final-four.
The key for Kenseth this season is turning those races that could have been wins into actual wins. Kenseth has no issue with consistency but he does have an issue with making cars capable of winning races actual win races. If Kenseth and the No. 20 team can turn a few of those top-five finishes into wins in 2017, they could be on their way to a championship.
Nov 12, 2016; Avondale, AZ, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Joey Logano (22) during practice for the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 – Joey Logano
Logano might not have had the wins that he was looking for in 2016 but at the end of the year he and his No. 22 teams were exactly where they wanted to be, the championship race in Miami.
Logano is no stranger to making it to the final-four in Miami as he has now done it in two of the last three seasons. Logano would have made it three seasons in a row had it not been for his issues with Matt Kenseth in 2015 and the aftermath of what those issues resulted in.
The final 10 races of the season are right in the wheel house for Logano and the No. 22 team and that is why they have been so successful under the current Chase format. All that’s left for Logano to do is to win at Homestead as that’s what its taken for crown a champion each of the last three seasons.
Nov 20, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) makes a pit stop during the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 – Kevin Harvick
Moving from Chevy to Ford will be much of the talk surrounding SHR at the start of the 2017 season, especially if they struggle. In a Chevy Kevin Harvick has lit the NASCAR world on fire since joining SHR back in 2014.
Harvick won the championship in 2014 and finished second in the standings in 2015. 2016 saw Harvick and his team take a step back as they had some in-season struggles and a poor showing in the Chase which resulted in them finishing eighth.
Over the last three seasons Harvick is averaging four wins, 18 top-five’s and 25 top-10’s. Keep in mind there are 36 races in a season an in each of the last two seasons, Harvick has only finished outside of the top-10 15 times.
The move to Ford is going to be some extra motivation for Harvick. The loss of Stewart to retirement will also make Harvick the pseudo veteran leader on that team even though Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer aren’t spring chicks by any means.
All-in-all 2017 is adding up to be a challenge for Harvick and a chance for him to prove others wrong. This all sounds very 2014ish to me and we all know how that ended.
Nov 19, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) during practice for the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 – Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch ripped the championship monkey off of his back when he won his first Cup Series title in 2015. He followed that up with a return to the final-four in 2016 and now in 2017 he will be looking for his second championship.
Kyle Busch is the best driver on the best team in NASCAR right now and that really does mean something.
On any given weekend Busch can win and nobody would be surprised. Heck, in any given month Busch could rattle of two or three wins in a row and nobody would be surprised. In 2015 Busch showed he could overcome the odds and in 2016 Busch showed that 2015 wasn’t a fluke.
Everybody in NASCAR wants to win but few in NASCAR hate not winning as much as Kyle Busch does and it’s for that reason that he will be hard to pick against in 2017.
No. 1 – Jimmie Johnson
How can the top driver on this list not be Jimmie Johnson?
After winning six championships and struggling with the current Chase format the knock on Johnson was that he couldn’t win seven because of the new format. Well, in 2016 Johnson crushed the new format, won his seventh title and now the sky seems to be the limit for the driver of the No. 48 machine.
We have all witnessed Johnson go on a championship tear. Remember when he won the title every season for five years in a row? Now that he has won in this current Chase format, what is stopping him from winning this year and next year?
The drive that fueled Johnson and Knaus to get to the seventh title will pale in comparison to the drive that will fuel them to get to number eight. Seven titles puts Johnson on the same pedestal with the greatest drivers ever to be in NASCAR. Eight titles puts Johnson on a pedestal as the greatest driver ever to race in NASCAR, a pedestal that no other driver will most likely ever reach.
You want to be against Johnson this season? You go right ahead and in November we can see exactly how that went for you.
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