Atlanta Braves

The 2017 Atlanta Braves: How Good Will They Be?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:45 p.m. ET

Fansided, Alan Carpenter/FanSided via Tomahawk Take

Barring something Coppy-esque, the final pieces are set for most MLB teams at this point and it’s a fair question to ask: how competitive will the Atlanta Braves be as they unlock the doors on SunTrust Field for the first time?

What will this Atlanta Braves lineup do? How will it fare against the denizens of the NL East?

Position by position, let’s take a quick look at the current depth charts and hazard a few guesses about what we might see over the next 9 months.

Methodology

What I will do is score National League East clubs by position from 1 point (Worst) to 5 points (Best) for performance expectations offensively and defensively. This is not based on projection scores. It is based on track records, player ages, and general expectations.

This is not a ‘ranking’, per se, but a scaling: for example, 2 elite pitchers will both get scores of 5 – I will not attempt to put one in first place at 5 points and another in second with 4 points.

We will see a lot of cases in which one player dominates the division at his position while the others lag behind. The scores will reflect that as well.

One general flaw may be that (almost) every position will have at least one 5 point assignee, though it’s certainly plausible that the 5 point catcher does not equate to a five point third baseman, for instance. But recognizing that, we’ll press forward regardless.

Let’s dig in.

CATCHER

Since the Braves made the latest move yesterday, and did it at this position, let’s start here.

The clear leader in this group is J.T. Realmuto, with a .771 OPS and 3rd ranked in all MLB catchers with 3.5 fWAR in 2016. He is backed by long-time Dodger vet A.J. Ellis.

Next closest was Cameron Rupp; Flowers and Suzuki are next on the list.

The problem that most teams are facing is the age of their catchers. Well – that or the fact that they just aren’t very good. So while the Marlins win this category – by a mile – the rest you could probably throw into a hat an draw names since it will be difficult to gauge performance separations for any of them.

Still, we’ll try this: MIA (5), ATL (2.5), PHI (2), WAS (1), NYM (1)

1ST BASE

Is this the year Ryan Zimmerman gets healthy and remembers how to hit? That’s the biggest question with this positional category. If he does, the Nats could run off and hide from the rest of the division.

But Zim has been supported by great offensive help for multiple years now while he either hasn’t been able to stay on the field or hasn’t been able to … well, do much period.

As for the rest: this is Atlanta’s category to own. If Freeman stays healthy, he becomes their catalyst for all things this club does. And he’s also the clear runaway leader of this position battle.

ATL (5), MIA (2.5), PHI (1.5), WAS (1.5), NYM (1)

2ND BASE

Here’s a strong category from top to bottom. Daniel Murphy has to be the winner here, but it’s still competitive… at least if Neil Walker and Cesar Hernandez can repeat their performances and Dee Gordon can stick around for the whole year (and get on base).

This one is tricky to grade for the Braves since it’s hard to know who might get the most reps at the position between Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. Smart money suggests that Rodriguez might play most days… though that could be at two positions.

Of course if neither gets off to a good start, there’s another Atlanta option that will be waiting in the wings.

Let’s try this order: WAS (5), PHI (4), NYM (3), MIA (2), ATL (1.5)

3RD BASE

There are two leaders here, but it’s not a particularly strong position around the division… unless David Wright is playing. But that’s a big if, right?

Adonis Garcia may need to hit consistently to keep his job with Sean Rodriguez hanging around. Maikel Franco could break out… or flame out.

Meanwhile, there’s Rendon and Prado at the top … can Rendon stay there? Probably. Can Prado? He always has.

My grades assume that Rendon isn’t a fluke and that David Wright won’t make it back for the whole season.

WAS (5), MIA (4), PHI (3), ATL (1.5), NYM (1.5)

SHORTSTOP

A pretty strong group here. Did you realize that Dansby Swanson amassed 0.8 fWAR in just 38 games? Extrapolate that to 150 games and that’s 3.9 WAR… which would have tied Addison Russell for 3rd in the league.

Still, there’s Trea Turner, who has 3.3 fWAR in just 73 games. It feels like 3.0 of that happened against Atlanta.

I don’t know what happened to Adeiny Hechavarria, but it’s hard to imagine a significant rebound from his 2016 season.

WAS (5), ATL (3.5), NYM (3), PHI (3), MIA (1.5)

OUTFIELD

Rather than tackle the outfielders in separate positions – since the Mets may be moving guys around a bit – I opted to lump them all together.

Speaking of those Mets, they’ve been unable to free themselves of Jay Bruce, so either he’s got to get a lot more like his Cincy self or they’ve got a fairly serious hole in right field. Granderson and Cespedes will need to repeat their 2016 performances’s to keep their team going… especially if Wright isn’t there.

If Giancarlo Stanton can ever control his swing and miss tendencies, then the Marlins outfield could compete with anyone. As it is, they still look strong, particularly when you have a guy like Ichiro coming off the bench.

Philadelphia looks like a team in transition – perhaps a year or two behind Atlanta… with their own impact outfielder in Odubel Herrera and perhaps another one on the way in Roman Quinn. But until then… some questions.

Washington needs Bryce Harper to return to form. He played confused last year – literally good and then bad each month in succession. Jayson Werth is showing his age, but moving Turner to shortstop with Eaton coming in will make them better.

Atlanta joins Miami with a full slate of returning starters and the Braves are clearly banking on a steady repeat of 2016’s second half to support Freeman. Consistentcy will be important here, and that seems reasonable to expect.

So how do we score this with uncertainty all over the division? Here’s where you could probably have the most complaints about these ratings – but we’ll give it a shot:

STARTING PITCHING

I won’t dwell on this a lot: the Nationals and Mets must stay healthy… and these scroes actually assume some issues for the Mets. The Braves have the most depth, but it’s unclear whether this whole rotation will stay with the team all year.

One note: if the Braves actually make the move to land Jose Quintana… not likely, but this is all an academic exercise… then their scores change to 4, 4, 3, 3, 3 – up 2 points.

BULLPEN

Not a big impact here for any club – the Mets will likely lose Familia for at least 1/4th of the season; no other team has an impact closer. While changes are still likely, I don’t see a large shift coming, so let’s assign these points:

ATL 3.5; NYM 3.5; PHI 3; WAS 2.5; MIA: 2.

Points Tally

That’s a surprising result, to be honest.

The Mets suffer here because of perceptions that they will fight to keep everybody on the field. If I were to target specific players to watch, they would be David Wright (clearly), and their rotation’s top three.

The Braves should be less spectacular and yet more consistent overall, so that helps their final score. Excepting perhaps the outfield, they have overlapping depth at most positions, especially pitching.

Does that really mean second place for the Braves? In my mind mind, that’s entirely up to the Mets. But perhaps my bias is still showing, despite attempts to quell that (before doing this, I had expected the Mets to be in second; the Braves third).

The Marlins should be better, but their pitching is in disarray, so they will have to out-hit everyone. The Phillies will be better when they want to be better – but with their current lineup, it does not appear that they have targeted this season for that task.

The Nationals continue to look like the easy winners of the division if their pitching holds together.

Their lineup features 3 possible MVP-level performers (Harper, Murphy, and Turner) along with very capable support in Eaton and Rendon. That will probably make up for their deficiencies in the bullpen, at catcher, and at first base.

You views? Your scores?