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Let's try to peer into the Minnesota Twins front office via a crystal ball to see who will make up this year's starting five for Opening Day.
The headline gives me a major qualifier: Opening Day. Because everyone who breaks camp as part of the Minnesota Twins' starting five will most assuredly not be in the rotation come May 1.
That's because this year's Spring Training was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, and two-to-three fifths of the possible starting five were pitching for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
While Ervin Santana was flown in to start just one game – a loss in the semi-final against Team USA – two others may have hurt their chances at making the final 25 when Minnesota breaks camp in less than two weeks.
Both Hector Santiago and Jose Berrios were in the mix to be part of the 2017 Twins' starting rotation. Santiago, to be sure, was getting a long look based on his previous major league starts. Berrios needed to have a good camp to solidify his spot.
Santiago got shelled in one start before getting pulled in favor of a reliever. In a normal Spring Training game, the team would eschew the chance for a win to make sure the starter got his work in first.
That's because the priority in Spring Training is to lengthen out each starter's work day to ready them for the regular season.
Berrios has only been used sparingly in Spring Training by the Twins, pitching just four innings before leaving March 6 for the WBC. He was the second arm out of the pen in last night's WBC final against the USA squad, allowing three runs in 1.2 innings. Santiago had already hit his pitch limit in relief and wasn't available for last night's game.
Either way, Mike Berardino from the Pioneer Press tweeted this yesterday afternoon:
Looks like Santiago will start Saturday at Sarasota for #mntwins with Mejia and Duffey working on minors side that day. Berrios TBD.
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) March 22, 2017
Ervin Santana is the team's ace, after last year's performance and his outings so far this spring. As long as they can get him back on track days-wise, manager Paul Molitor has already proclaimed Santana as the Opening Day starter.
Kyle Gibson has the number-two spot nailed down after an impressive spring. In his last two starts, totaling 10 innings versus Boston and St. Louis, Gibson has only allowed one run on a homer. He struck out nine batters, versus only one walk, in those two starts.
Phil Hughes has rebounded from the broken leg and Adam's rib surgery for his thoracic outlet syndrome last season, to an impressive March. He did get shelled yesterday against the Astros, but his spot as the number-three guy is safe.
As for the four and five guys, I think Santiago will get the fourth spot as long as the Twins' coaching staff sees a good outing from him next time out. The training staff will also need to be apprised of his throwing regimen while he was out of their watchful eyes during the past couple weeks.
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The fifth spot may go to Aldaberto Mejia given the scarcity of innings Berrios has thrown so far this spring. He gets the nod over Tyler Duffey for two reasons. One, he's a left-hander, and two, Duffey has experience in bullpens.
With Trevor May lost for the year with Tommy John surgery, the bullpen is looking for a long-reliever/spot starter. Right now, Duffey would fit the bill, just as Tommy Milone did for the Twins in 2016.
Mejia has been as advertised, missing bats and looking explosive at times. Duffey is solid, but the Twins has seen his upside during short stretches over the past couple years. Mejia's ceiling is higher.
With Berrios waiting in the wings, Duffey would be hard-pressed to pass him either if one of the other four starters comes up lame. But Duffey can stay lengthened out for a spot start if, say, Hughes needs to skip a start without going on the disabled list.
With three righties and two lefties (Santiago also a southpaw), a balanced rotation would help Molitor out in series matchups. Just 12 days til the games count. We'll see how my prediction shakes out.
Notes: Twins announced that Trevor May's Tommy John surgery was a success. With the surgery, May was placed on the 60-day DL, opening a spot on the 40-man roster. The Twins filled that spot with the addition of Craig Breslow.
