Every season, in every sport, a multitude of predictions are made on various things. One of these predictions is the record that the team will finish out with.
For those of you that do not know, Bovada is a popular betting website that, like any other betting institution, predicts the outcome of the MLB season. While a betting website isn’t necessarily the most reliable source of information, the records they predict can be fairly accurate. Last season the Dodgers were predicted to win 88.5, they won 91, the Marlins 79.5 while winning 79, and the Cardinals being predicted to win 87.5 and winning 86. Those are just a few highlights from the predictions from last season.
Now, heading into spring training, Bovada has released their win totals for next season. The totals are fairly interesting considering some teams are favored more in the World Series but less in the win department. Of course, that is because the strength of the divisions and whatnot, but it is interesting. The predictions look as followed:
As you can see the Chicago Cubs are predicted to win the most games next season, and the Padres the least. Seeing the Cubs take home the best record in baseball again should be no surprise. They play in a fairly weak division that, outside of St. Louis, fails to have any legitimate contenders.
The Dodgers are ranked to have the second most wins, edging out the Boston Red Sox. Despite the Red Sox having better odds to win the World Series, the Dodgers are predicted to get more wins. Obviously this is because the AL East fails to have any serious flops of teams, while the west has the Padres and struggling Diamondbacks.
Other interesting predictions are the Rangers falling to 84 wins after a 95 win season. Although, I did predict that the Rangers would fall to 82 wins next season, so I guess Bovada has my back there. Perhaps the biggest disagreement I have with these predictions is that the Mariners will only win 85 games; personally I see them as a 90 win team.
When compared to the Fangraphs predictions for next season, these predictions seem all the more interesting. FanGraphs also predicts the Cubs to win the most games at 95. Then it is the Dodgers with 94, the Red Sox with 93, the Indians with 92, and the Nationals with 91. The first five teams are all in the same order and are within one game of the Bovada predictions.
The Padres are also the lowest winning team according to Fangraphs, and the Rangers also are predicted to struggle. The Padres are predicted to win 65 games compared to Bovada’s 66.5, and the Rangers 83 to Bovada’s 84.5. Oh, and Fangraphs predicts the Mariners to win 83 games, only being 2.5 games worse than Bovada’s predictions.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the betting odds are very similar to the predictions of a sabermetric heavy website. The people at Fangraphs know what they are doing, Bovada likely took inspiration from them and a multitude of other sources. As the 2017 MLB season plays out we will see if Bovada and Fangraphs got it right, but at we all should know predictions don’t always go as planned.