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MLB Top Ten First Base Prospects For the 2017 Season
Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
With the season just around the corner, who are the top 10 first base prospects in MLB?
An Introduction
These lists will be coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our MLB contributors at Call To The Pen.
Ben reviewed each organization's top 10 prospects in November and December, then also reviewed the top 125 prospects in the game in January. Throughout MLB spring training, he's also been contributing scouting reports on players that are part of his top 25 prospects in MLB.
Each slide will feature two players with a brief write up, then one final slide with a prospect who is not in the top 10, but very possibly could find his way into the top 5 with an impressive 2017 campaign due the player's high upside.
These rankings are based on dozens of conversations with multiple people around the game about different prospects, and certainly each list could be much longer, but for brevity, we'll stick to 10!
Let's get started with today's position group, the men who man the first sack:
10. Matt Thaiss, Los Angeles Angels
Thaiss was a New Jersey prep catcher that caught the Red Sox eye, but he was quite secure in his commitment to the University of Virginia.
After a very solid collegiate catching career, Thaiss was highly regarded in the 2016 draft, but for his bat, not as a catcher.
Thaiss was moved immediately by the Angels to first base, a position not ideal for his 6′ height, but he's doing very well with the transition both offensively and defensively thus far, though the defense is understandably still clunky at times.
Thaiss hit .292/.361/.462 in 297 plate appearances with the Angels advanced rookie level team and their low-A Midwest League team. He smacked 19 doubles, 4 triples, and 6 home runs.
Thaiss has an elite swing that should allow him to have solid contact and excellent gap power currently and develop home run power as he matures. Likely, he'll open 2017 in high-A or AA, and there is a legit chance he sees big league time as soon as this September.
9. Dan Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners
Vogelbach has been tracked since he was drafted out of high school in 2011 by the Chicago Cubs as a hefty 6′ first baseman.
While lacking the prototypical size, Vogelbach could always put a light under the baseball, especially in batting practice. His power wasn't always as consistent in game, but he showed the ability to be a solid hitter for average and power while limiting his strikeouts.
Vogelbach's weight has reached higher levels at times, but is listed at 250 currently. That has been a problem for him in the past, and while he has a solid bat, it's not the type of bat that would likely be prototypical for a DH-only career, so he needs to have some level of athleticism to handle first base.
Vogelbach looked rough in a first go-round with Seattle in 2016 in the majors, but he should be the heavy side of a platoon at first base this season, and his platoon partner, Danny Valencia, is a guy who makes a pretty decent comparison for him right away until he is able to access more of the prodigious power in his swing at the big league level.
8. Josh Naylor, San Diego Padres
To say Naylor had an "interesting" 2016 season would be selling it quite short.
In early June, Naylor reportedly played a prank on fellow Marlins prospect Stone Garrett that led to Garrett having an injury to his thumb that caused him to miss significant time.
The coverage of the incident did mislabel the incident a "stabbing", which it truly was not, but it did really paint Naylor's season in a different light from that point forward until he ended up traded to the Padres in a mid-season deal.
Naylor is a large human being, standing only 6′ tall, but weighing in at 225 listed pounds, though I could believe he holds another 10-15 pounds on top of that.
He also didn't exactly set the world on fire in game with power in spite of that size. His batting practice displays are well-known, and his display at the Futures Game in San Diego was discussed among prospect guys for the rest of the summer.
Naylor is a surprising athlete for his listed weight. He does remind me plenty of Mo Vaughn in that respect, being a guy of heft that still could move and had athleticism at the position.
Naylor will likely open the season with high-A in 2017 and won't turn 20 until mid-June.
7. Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers
Guzman has been on the prospect radar for some time. He has the ideal size (6'5″ and 205 pounds), big power stroke, and enough contact skills to make one think he could be a guy to hit for power and average.
After a solid partial season at 18 in low-A Hickory, his return to the level in 2014 at 19 exposed some of the contact issues that could be a plague for Guzman as he's worked up the Rangers' system.
While he's flashed power, he's struggled to offer a good batting eye to keep his strikeouts manageable.
In 2016, he really showed well at higher levels, hitting .274/.333/.449 with solid power production and a respectable 7.63% walk rate and 20.55% strikeout rate.
Guzman is still just 22 and will be at AAA to open 2017, so he's by no means "old" for a prospect, even if it may seem as if he's been on the prospect radar for a long time.
6. Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians
There is not a more pure power swing in the minor leagues right now than that of Indians prospect Bobby Bradley.
Bradley jumped over low-A in 2015, but found sledding in high-A a bit more difficult in 2016 at 20 years old. He did smack 29 home runs on the season, upping his total from his 2015 total of 27, however, he also struck out at a 29.72% rate. While that's quite high, that's actually an improvement on his 2015 rate of 31.65%.
Bradley is a three true outcomes sort of hitter, as he has hit plenty of home runs, walks at a double-digit percentage rate, and strikes out in nearly 1/3 of his plate appearances as well.
Bradley is still just 20 years old and will not turn 21 until the end of May, so he's got plenty of time still to develop, but his huge power will definitely give him plenty of opportunities along the way.
Bradley will open 2017 in AA most likely. With Carlos Santana a free agent after the 2017 season, there could be a spot in the big league club for Bradley if he wants it.
5. Casey Gillaspie, Tampa Bay Rays
Gillaspie followed his brother Conor Gillaspie to Wichita State and to professional baseball after being drafted with the 20th overall selection in the first round by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014. The brothers' father, Mark Gillaspie spent 8 years in the 1980s in the minor league systems for four organizations.
Gillaspie has what would be ideal size for a first baseman, standing 6'4″ tall, weighing in at 240 pounds, and swinging a solid power bat from both sides of the plate in the batting cages.
After really struggling to produce that power on the field previous to 2016, he broke through in 2016 while in the upper levels of the minors, hitting very well in both AA and AAA.
His final slash line for 2016 was .284/.388/.479 with 18 home runs, 34 doubles, a 14.29% walk rate, and a 20.89% strikeout rate.
Gillaspie has a powerful swing from both sides of the plate that translates well to future production in the major leagues, and many felt that the reason that the Rays pursued "fill-in" options at first base for 2017 was their belief that Gillaspie could be ready at some point this season and certainly by 2018 to take over the position in Tampa Bay.
4. Rowdy Tellez, Toronto Blue Jays
One of the better draft success stories of recent drafts, the Blue Jays snagged Tellez out of high school in California in the 30th round.
Tellez has prototype size for a first baseman at 6'4″ tall. He's listed at 220 pounds, though it would not surprise me in the least if he's 15-20 pounds light on that number.
While he doesn't have the monster power swing of someone like Bobby Bradley, Tellez has a more pure swing that could produce power, average, and good walk/strikeout rates as well.
In 2016, with AA New Hampshire, Tellez hit .297/.387/.530 with 29 doubles, 23 home runs, a 12.26% walk rate, and a 17.9% strikeout rate.
Tellez has a pretty smooth glove at first base as well, showing more athleticism than you'd expect from a guy at his size.
Tellez will likely be at AAA in 2017, and while Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales are both signed for 2018, there certainly would be an opportunity for Tellez to claim a job in Toronto in 2018.
3. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
The last beneficiary of the previous draft slotting system, Bell was selected in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, receiving a larger signing bonus than most first rounders in that season.
Bell has a very impressive swing from both sides of the plate, though it seems to play more in game to contact than to power. His 6'2″, 240-pound frame would lead one to imagine he could be an elite power hitter, and he certainly could develop that in time.
Bell transitioned from outfield, where he had drawn solid reviews on his defense, to first base in 2014, and he's struggled with the reads off the bat at the position.
Bell is expected to open the season in Pittsburgh, though a good expectation for this season may be more in line with someone like James Loney's offensive line, with solid average and on-base, good doubles production, and home runs in the teens.
2. Dominic Smith, New York Mets
The first high school hitter taken after the pair of highly-regarded Georgia prep outfielders in the 2013 draft with the 11th overall pick, Smith was known for his impressive hitting in showcases throughout his high school years.
At 6′ tall, Smith isn't the ideal height for a first baseman, but at 250 pounds (though he's dropped significant weight over the offseason coming into this year from views of him in spring training, likely to 225ish or even a hair less), he presents a solid target for his fielders and has very good agility around the bag.
More from Call to the Pen
Before 2016, Smith had struggled to show the impressive power he had in the cage in game, but it began to come out in 2016 while he was in the upper minors, having his best offensive season overall.
Smith hit .302/.367/.457 with 29 doubles, 14 home runs, a 9.23% walk rate, and a 13.65% strikeout rate.
Smith will turn 22 in mid-June and will likely be assigned to AAA to open to 2017. With Lucas Duda hitting the free agent market after 2017, the first base position for 2018 should be open to Smith.
1. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
The guy who has seemingly shot up prospect ranking lists this season has been Bellinger, and anyone who saw him in the Arizona Fall League has a story about his power swing.
The son of former utility man Clay Bellinger, only Baseball America ranked him coming into the season, even after he put up a 30 home run season for high-A Rancho Cucamonga at 19 years old.
Many thought the power was influenced by the California League, and that Bellinger had simply sold out for power after being a guy who hit for significant contact and gap power previously and saw his contact rate drop as his power went up.
Instead, Bellinger improved his walk rate, drastically improved his strikeout rate, and hit for a bit better average as he produces similar power in 2016.
Then he hit .314/.424/.557 with 3 huge home runs in the Arizona Fall League, launching balls in batting practice that scouts I talked with raved about still months later.
Bellinger will likely open 2017 at AAA, and Adrian Gonzalez is a free agent after the 2018 season, which would leave first base open for Bellinger. In the mean time, he's shown to be a passable corner outfielder and oculd find himself competing for a spot in 2018 in the outfield before he takes over at 1B in 2018.
Lewin Diaz, Minnesota Twins
Listed at 6'3″ and 180 pounds on his Baseball Reference page, one look at Diaz will tell you that both numbers are likely short.
Known for his power when he signed, Diaz has added both height and muscle to his frame, and after the production he had in the Appalachian League in 2016, I had multiple scouts tell me that they expected him to explode in 2017.
Diaz turned solid walk and strikeout rates into good contact and began driving the ball, not just into gaps, but over the fence – and WAY over the fence.
His big power along with a solid contact rate could allow him to move quickly up the Twins system, as he'll likely get his first taste of full season ball in the 2017 season.
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