Atlanta Braves

Just When You Thought Catching Might Be Settled

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:39 p.m. ET

Fansided, Alan Carpenter/FanSided via Tomahawk Take

Sep 21, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) fields a ground ball in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

One thing we hear for certain from every #AskCoppy session: there is never a “never” is Coppolella’s discussions of player possibilities.

Though virtually every other possible Catching avenue has been allowed to pass for the Atlanta Braves this off-season, there’s still one catcher out there that fans are asking about and one that Coppy has yet to rule out completely.

Matt Wieters.

Hey @DOBrienAJC does the braves have interest in Matt weiters or will he be to expensive?

— Michael Martin (@mmartin1044) December 17, 2016

Haven't ruled it out if price comes down. https://t.co/HXu6ElX4oN

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienAJC) December 17, 2016

Indeed he hasn’t. Here’s a quote directly from Coppy to the question from several this week: “Is there any possibility of Matt Wieters coming to Atlanta this off-season?”

Lots of questions about Wieters because he's good — never say never, but it would have to make sense for him and for us https://t.co/LwL9o6iWOC

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) December 15, 2016

‘Good’ or Merely Adequate?

Part of the struggle in figuring out whether Wieters is worth pursuing at all involved his injury history – though the notion of a catcher having Tommy John surgery is admittedly unusual and he was actually pretty durable before that happened.

Correspondingly, Wieters did have 4 consecutive productive seasons: 2010-2013. He averaged 3.3 fWAR over that period, though much of that was actually due to his defense.

But it’s the 2016 season that’s the real quandry – a year in which the Orioles paid him a Qualifying Offer price and didn’t get Qualifying Offer-level results.

Wieters did manage 124 games played, but only 980 innings behind the dish. In those 2010-2013 years, his stints ranged from 1060 to 1201 innings. He still nailed a third of would-be base-runners this past season, but also allowed a career-high 42 wild pitches with a (marginally) career-low fielding percentage.

But it’s the offense that never has really taken off for the Georgia Tech product. He’s slightly better than the average catcher at the plate, with a career 97 wRC+ and .739 OPS… but those numbers should be viewed with his best years now being behind him.

Sep 23, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Tyler Flowers (25) connects for an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Comparison from Experience?

Let’s comp Wieters to two catchers that we all know well.

Brian McCann, who’s 2 years and 3 months older, averages a .799 OPS and 113 wRC+ over the scope of his career (with a .748 and 103 in his latest season).

Tyler Flowers went for .777 and 110 marks in 2016… actually something of a resurgence for him – 4 months older than Wieters – since .686 and 88 are his career numbers.

Is there a fluke for Wieters in his 2016 comeback numbers?

His splits are… odd. Wieters hit .214 in April and had a horrid July (.117). May was outstanding (.333) and the rest of the months were essentially normal for him (.253-.264).

More important to the Braves, though, might be his AB’s against RH pitching since Flowers is sticking around and there’s something of a platoon opportunity with the RHH Flowers and the switch-hitting Wieters… kinda.

Indeed the long-time Oriole did hit better as a lefty (.253) in 2016 with a .747 OPS and 97 wRC+. Those numbers do kinda hold up against his career chart … (.250/.717/91 wRC+), though his hitting off LHP is actually better when you add in those good seasons from 2010-2013.

Either way, Flowers actually had a reverse-split in 2016 – hitting better vs. RHP (.277) than LHP (.258) and virtually identical OPS and wRC+ numbers that beat Wieters all around… if you believe that Flowers will repeat that in 2017.

So all that to say “I have no idea how the Braves might use Wieters if they actually landed him.” It’s just not a great fit overall.

That Price Thing

This saga is going to go on for quite a while. But let me suggest a past corollary to the drama that could play out here: Michael Bourn.

Both Bourn and Wieters are clients of uber-agent Scott Boras.

Back in the 2012 off-season, Bourn declined a $13.3 million qualifying offer from the Atlanta Braves. With Boras running his playbook, word was that he was looking for something in the neighborhood of 5 years and $75 million for a new free agent deal… and he would wait for that to happen.

That didn’t happen.

Bourn lingered… and lingered… and lingered… on the market. None of the rumored teams with definitive needs bit on the veteran center fielder.

Finally – on February 11th, a week before Spring Training camps opened – he signed with Cleveland for 4 years and $48 million. There was a vesting option for 2017, but that was never exercised. Even so, the contract was considered ‘bad’ after the third season.

Admittedly, the difference here is fairly dramatic – it’s not a clean comparison. Two drastically different positions are involved, plus Wieters is not saddled with the yoke of a Qualifying Offer this season.

Still, it’s Boras and a veteran with declining skills that has to be projected for (possibly) multiple years with few possible landing spots.

Oct 2, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) bats in the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Catbird’s Seat

The Atlanta Braves has a perfect situation in front of them. They truly don’t need a catcher now.

From Coppy’s comment and DOB’s guess, though, you’d have to believe there’s a threshold in which the Braves would entertain the idea of bringing Wieters in.

During the discussion of Brian McCann, speculation was that the Braves valued his production at roughly $11 million per year at this point in his career. But that also came at a price which included tradable prospects of some ilk (obviously there was some significant dispute over the resume’s of the prospects required, in that particular case).

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Wieters is not better than Brian McCann. There’s just no way to slice that in any other manner. And if McCann is worth only $11m annually to Atlanta, then Wieters would have to be somewhere around $9-10 million… and that only because it’s a straight cash deal.

Boras will continue to point toward 2010-2013 to tout his player. But teams will balk at that all day long and twice on Sunday. This drama will last a while, for there are few clubs with definitive needs at the position that would want to fork over $12-14 million for 3-4 years, as Witers likely is looking for at this point.

In their predictions for this off-season, MLBTR did actually guess the Braves for Wieters – at three years and $39 million. I see no scenario in which Atlanta pays that for Wieters unless Flowers breaks an ankle between now and March. It just won’t happen like that otherwise.

If Boras and his client would accept a 3x$10 million deal, then that could get Coppy interested. 3x$9 million would probably get a contract ready to sign.

Heck, throw in a fourth option year that allows Boras to claim some victory while both sides know that it would never be executed.

But frankly, Boras should go for a shorter deal… maybe even a single-year pact if he and Wieters think that he’s still ‘got it’. He could shoot for perhaps $12 million that way and teams might bite due to the shorter term.

In the meantime, I would not recommend staking out the HoneyBaked Ham stores near Dunwoody or Vinings waiting for Brian Snitker to show up with news that he just can’t contain.

For even if this comes to pass, it’ll never be that soon.