Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds 2017 preview

Published Mar. 10, 2017 7:46 a.m. ET

Sam Gardner

This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ll preview a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The NL Central: Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers. Up next: The AL West and the Texas Rangers

LAST SEASON

68-94, last in NL Central

WHAT’S NEW

Key additions: RP Drew Storen (free agent from Mariners), SP Scott Feldman (free agent from Blue Jays), SP/RP Austin Brice (trade from Marlins), OF Ryan Raburn (free agent from Rockies), OF Desmond Jennings (free agent from Rays), RP Louis Coleman (free agent from Dodgers), RP Andrew McKirahan (trade from Braves), OF/IF Arismendy Alcantara (waivers from A’s), P Nefi Ogando (waivers from Pirates), SP Bronson Arroyo (free agent from Nationals)

Drew Storen

Key subtractions: 2B Brandon Phillips (traded to Braves), SP Dan Straily (traded to Marlins), SP/RP Alfredo Simon (free agent), RP Keyvius Sampson (free agent to Diamondbacks), RP Ross Ohlendorf (free agent to Japan), SP John Lamb (free agent to Angels), C Ramon Cabrera (free agent to Marlins)

Brandon Phillips

3 STRIKES

Jose Peraza

1. Youth movement up the middle. The recent Brandon Phillips trade made room for 22-year-old Jose Peraza to take over as the Reds’ full-time second baseman, and it’s fair to wonder whether shortstop Zack Cozart could soon follow Phillips out of Cincinnati. Cozart, 31, is in the final year of his contract and figures to command a respectable return, in the event that he’s dealt. And more importantly, his departure would make room for 23-year-old Dilson Herrera to take over at short. Herrera, the prize of last summer’s Jay Bruce trade, spent all of last season at Triple-A after failing to deliver in a handful of games with the Mets in 2014 and 2015, but now it’s time to see how good he can be. Because, frankly, the Reds don’t really have much to lose by playing him, and the more time he gets to spend playing alongside Peraza, the better.

Joey Votto

2. Mr. Reliable. After a slow start, former NL MVP Joey Votto was the best hitter in baseball during the second half of 2016, hitting .408 with 15 home runs, 55 RBI and an astronomical 1.158 OPS over his final 72 games. And while it’s unlikely he maintains that ridiculous pace in 2017, there’s little reason to believe Votto, who declined an invitation to play for Canada in the World Baseball Classic, won’t deliver for Cincinnati, as long as he’s healthy. On a roster that’s seen enormous turnover in recent years, the 33-year-old Votto has been a steady presence on a young team that badly needs one. And between his influence in the clubhouse and his production on the field, he’s more than worth the 10-year, $225 million extension he signed in 2012.

Anthony DeSclafani

3. Filling out the rotation. January’s trade of Dan Straily to the Marlins and February’s move to put Homer Bailey on the 60-day DL following elbow surgery has left Cincinnati with one big question mark for a starting rotation in 2017. The Reds should be able to rely on Anthony DeSclafani, who has performed admirably (3.74 ERA) in 51 starts since coming over from Miami prior to the 2015 season, and young lefty Brandon Finnegan has been mostly consistent since the team acquired him in the Johnny Cueto deal. But beyond those two, there won’t be many sure things on the bump for the Reds this year. MLB veteran Scott Feldman figures to open the year as the team’s No. 3 starter, but Robert Stephenson and Tim Adleman, the team’s projected Nos. 4 and 5, have combined for 21 major league starts. On the farm, they’ve got Cody Reed, who got shelled during an extended big league run last summer, as well as Rookie Davis and Amir Garrett, and they’ll all likely get their shot in Cincinnati at some point this season. But like the rest of the Reds’ rotation, it’s anyone’s guess how they’ll fare.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO

Billy Hamilton takes another step forward after a bounce-back 2016, Votto keeps smashing the ball (when he’s not busy walking), the youth movement on the mound is generally more successful than not and Cincinnati wins 75 games.

Billy Hamilton

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Votto gets hurt and the Reds join the '03 Tigers and '05 Royals — each of whom went on to reach the World Series twice in the next 10 years — as one of the worst teams in recent memory.

Joey Votto

SURPRISING STAT

The Reds’ relievers had a combined FIP (fielding independent pitching) rate of 5.34 in 2016, the worst mark by a bullpen since the 2006 Orioles (5.45).

BEST BETS

Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 73.5

World Series odds (via VegasInsider.com): 300/1

Cincinnati Reds

TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS

1. Joey Votto, 1B: As consistent as they come, Votto has averaged 29 homers, 98 runs, 89 RBI, nine stolen bases and carried an on-base percent north of .400 the past two seasons.

2. Billy Hamilton, OF: The speedy outfielder is a near lock for 50+ stolen bases, but should also be applauded for his .293 batting average and .369 on base percentage in the second half of 2016.

3. Jose Peraza, SS/OF: Speaking of speed, now that Brandon Phillips is with the Braves, Peraza should earn regular playing time and could swipe 30+ bases for owners.

4. Adam Duvall, OF: If you are in the mood to compare 2016 fantasy production, Duvall and the Tigers’ Justin Upton were basically the same player. Weird, right?

5. Scott Schebler, OF: If we’re avoiding Reds’ starting pitchers, Schebler’s bat carves out a fantasy role for him as a fifth or sixth outfielder.

(Courtesy of FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)

PREDICTION

Cincinnati brings up the rear in the NL Central for the third consecutive season.