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Chicago Cubs: The pros and cons of signing Tyson Ross
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
With the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers the apparent finalists to sign Tyson Ross, what are the risks that come with him? We take a look at the best–and worst—case scenario for the Cubs should they sign Ross.
According to Jeff Passan, the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers are the favorites to land free agent starter Tyson Ross. Ross is a pitcher the Cubs have had their eye on over the past year and a half, and his unexpected arrival on the free agent market may have altered the front office’s plans. Ross is returning from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s a compression of nerves and blood vessels in the lower neck and upper chest. And can also be a severe health issue if not taken care of.
The Rangers are no stranger to the injury. Matt Harrison, Kenny Rogers and John Rheinecker have all had the procedure. The Cubs Clayton Richard also had surgery for it prior to coming to Chicago. So both teams are well aware of the good–and bad that can come with it. For the Cubs, it looks as if Ross is there only target as of now. But that could change during Spring Training. The Rangers appear to have former Cubs starter Jason Hammel on the radar as their contingency plan.
So what could these two expect out of Ross? There are only a handful of cases out there, and not many of them point to the positive side.
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Ross fails to regain velocity, command
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The book on those who have had the surgery and their return from it doesn’t bode well for Ross. While there isn’t a definitive link, it appears that the older a pitcher is after having the surgery, the less likely they are to be effective following it. One of the exceptions of the group is that of Chris Young. Following his surgery in which he missed the entire 2013 season, he bounced back to have two solid seasons. Last year he earned a ring with the Kansas City Royals. An injury shortened this year, but at 37 he’s the exception to the rule.
The injury has ended the careers of several high-profile pitchers. For Josh Beckett, the injury was one of several that led to the end of his career. Beckett didn’t see a drop in velocity, but his command struggled after returning. But this is where it’s difficult to gauge where the injury causes the decline, or if it’s the player’s age.
The Cardinals Chris Carpenter was another that saw his career cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome, as well as other arm issues in his career. Carpenter may be the epitome of what can go wrong with the injury. He never regained his velocity, and his command was lost. It didn’t take long and Carpenter retired after the 2013 season.
Matt Harvey of the New York Mets underwent surgery in July for it, so the jury is out on him. Harvey has been the ace of the Mets staff, and they need him to bounce back from this for them to be successful. If not, he could be another victim of TOS.
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
No longer the pitcher he once was
This is where the Cubs may expect Ross to land in this recovery. The front office liked Ross before, but that when the demand for Ross was high and they wouldn’t budge. Now, the Cubs–or Rangers–should get a discount for the 29-year-old righty. Think of it as an “audition” for next year. Even if he struggles in his return, the prospect of Ross as a fifth or sixth starter would be fine with the Cubs. The other part of it is that they won’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him.
Ross has struggled with his control over the last few seasons. That includes his All-Star season of 2014. He walked 72 batters in 2014, and league-high 84 in 2015. even with that he pitched 190+ innings in each season and posted a 2.81 and 3.26 ERA, respectively. The Cubs have been pretty clear they plan on using a six-man rotation, and that could be best for Ross as he works his way back.
Hammel won 15 games for the Cubs last year, but he surrendered a 4.53 ERA to hitters. He’s also allowed 20+ home runs in each of the last four seasons. If Ross has a small drop off in command, his ability to keep the ball in the yard would make him a clear step up over what Hammel provided last year.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
What if he returns better than before?
There aren’t many cases that can point to this being the case. Aside from the Royals’ Young, the only other one in the Rangers’ Matt Harrison. He had the surgery when he was just 23, and that was the first of TWO for Harrison. It took him nearly a year and a half, but Harrison saw his velocity and command improve. So much so that he was an All-Star in 2012. But other injuries have slowed Harrison as he now is a free agent.
Unlike Tommy John where you can see a pitcher come back stronger and better than before, TOS doesn’t work the same way. The two success stories come from two different age groups. Harrison was just 22 when he had his, Young was 34 when he had his. Booth seemed to recover from TOS, but other injuries have slowed both.
While the Cubs might expect Ross to fall into the last category, this could be a reason to gamble. The Cubs are the defending World Series Champions, and Ross would only make them a more impressive staff if he could return to full strength. And while Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer wouldn’t assume he would struggle, it would “just” be money. No picks, no prospects. Just like Jose Veras, if it doesn’t work the Cubs could release him and walk away. It’s a financial gamble they might be willing to make.
Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
The risk is worth the reward
My personal opinion is to go after Ross, within reason. If the Rangers want to make this a bidding war, they can have him. But Ross has a 3.64 career ERA, albeit in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. But this year’s free agent pitching group wasn’t very strong. Mike Montgomery might work in the rotation, but I have some concerns with him–and not all his fault.
If Travis Wood ends up signing elsewhere, I’d like to see Montgomery stay in the bullpen. Having a lefty that Joe Maddon has confidence in is key. With several new faces out there, developing that trust might take time. Let’s have it from the start and not have to worry about that.
The Cubs should know in the coming week what Ross will decide to do. Even without him, the Cubs will be a strong contender to repeat. But taking the best team and possibly making it better? Well worth the risk.
