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Fearless Predictions: Conference USA

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CONFERENCE USA FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
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Game of the Week
UCF (1-1) at Boston College (1-1)
— Saturday at 1 p.m. ET

Why to watch: Both Boston College and UCF spent their week off trying to get over tough home losses that could have gone either way. The Eagles dropped a 19-16 game to Georgia Tech, failing miserably on offense and forcing Jeff Jagodzinski and his staff to head back to the drawing board. It's just two games, but Chris Crane is doing a weak impersonation of Matt Ryan, eliciting a smattering of calls for young Dominique Davis to get a chance behind center. The Knights gave rival South Florida everything it had before dropping a gut-wrencher in overtime, 31-24. Although the game was lost, UCF showed a ton of character by battling back in the fourth quarter, something it can build on the rest of the season. Beating the reigning champs from the ACC Atlantic division would be a terrific springboard for the program heading into the start of the Conference USA schedule.

Why UCF might win: As long as Boston College continues to struggle on offense, it's going to have problems putting teams away. After averaging just 18 points and 299 yards against Kent State and Georgia Tech, things don't get any easier for the Eagles. The Knights are a ball-hawking, veteran defense that's especially stingy in the secondary. If Crane tries to get on track against a group that includes Joe Burnett, Johnell Neal, and Sha'reff Rashad, it'll take three of his passes the other way.

Why Boston College might win: The Eagle D has been as stout as advertised in the first two games, holding opponents to just 19 total points and no touchdown through the air. A front seven that includes tackles B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, and linebackers Brian Toal and Mark Herzlich will overwhelm the feeble UCF running game. The Knights have one of Conference USA's worst offenses, a trend that'll continue in Chestnut Hill.

Who to watch: Until the passing game shows some progress, Boston College will need more production from its top two backs, Josh Haden and Jeff Smith. While both were productive in the opener with Kent State, they got stuffed by the Yellow Jackets. UCF is vulnerable to power running games, which is exactly what the Eagles will try to become in order to get the offense moving.

What will happen: Boston College games are rarely pretty, and this one will be no different. The Eagles will gut out a tough win over UCF, getting a suffocating performance from a defense that'll score one of the team's three touchdowns and hold the Knights under 300 total yards

Line: Boston College -10

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: Boston College 24 ... UCF 10

East Carolina (3-0) at North Carolina State (1-2) — Saturday at noon ET

Why to watch: East Carolina played with fire last weekend and darn near got burned. The Pirates, darlings among the non-BCS schools, needed to rally late in the fourth quarter against Tulane to avoid being on the other end of an upset. They better get used to seeing the other team's best effort, which is what they'll experience as an unbeaten and ranked program. North Carolina State has sputtered to a 1-2 start, beating William & Mary in a game that was sandwiched between losses at South Carolina and Clemson, respectively. These two schools have a long history and are separated by just 90 miles, so more than just a victory will be at stake. For the Wolfpack, it has a chance to build some momentum with a rare win over a Top 25 team.

Why East Carolina might win: The way the Pirates are playing defense, they shouldn't have many problems with the Wolfpack. Take out the game with William & Mary, and the Pack offense has produced one field goal in eight quarters. The passing game has miserable and the offensive line will struggle to control a big East Carolina front that's led by end C.J. Wilson and tackle Jay Ross. Despite opening with ranked teams, the Pirates lead Conference USA in pass defense and are No. 2 in total defense.

Why NC State might win: With no help whatsoever from the offense, the Wolfpack D has single-handedly kept the program from getting humiliated in the first three games. LB Nate Irving is having an All-ACC start and Willie Young can be a nuisance rushing around the edge. The East Carolina offense has been mortal during the three-game winning streak, averaging 26 points and failing to get the running game started against Tulane. While QB Patrick Pinkney is performing like an MVP, the rest of the Pirates can be controlled by the State defense.

Who to watch: It didn't catch up with East Carolina last week, but at some point, the lack of a running game could be their downfall. While it's a shared problem with the offensive line, it's incumbent upon Brandon Simmons and Jon Williams to start making something out of nothing. The Pack has been inconsistent in run defense, so this week would be a good time to get on course.

What will happen: For the second straight week, East Carolina will have to scratch and claw in order to preserve its perfect record. It's a good thing N.C. State is a mess on offense or else this game would be doubly dangerous for the Pirates. They'll survive behind the play of Pinkney, who'll be a rock when the game is tight in the second half.

Line: East Carolina -7.5

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: East Carolina 17 ... NC State 14

UL Monroe (1-2) at Tulane (0-2) — Saturday at 3 p.m. ET

Why to watch: While it's hard to get too excited about an 0-2 start, Tulane has to feel pretty good about the way it's performed versus a couple of ranked opponents. The Green Wave gave Alabama a good fight before fading 20-6, and had East Carolina on the ropes until the Pirates squirmed away with two minutes remaining. If the program can maintain its level of play against all comers, it has a chance to exceed forecasts this fall. Louisiana-Monroe has had its own brush with SEC greatness, coming within a missed field goal in the final seconds of shocking Arkansas. The Warhawks rebounded from the disappointing loss, blowing past Alabama A&M for the first win of the season.

Why UL Monroe might win: The Warhawks have begun to heat up on offense, and have the ingredients for one of the Sun Belt's better attacks. Kinsmon Lancaster is a veteran quarterback, who's yet to throw a pick and can beat defenses in multiple ways. His targets include Zeek Zacharie, an all-league tight end, and redshirt freshman WR Anthony McCall, who schooled the Razorback secondary for six catches and a pair of touchdown receptions.

Why Tulane might win: Louisiana-Monroe may have some weapons on offense, but it's going to labor to move the ball on a Green Wave defense that's been a revelation through two games. Despite playing a couple of quality opponents, Tulane leads Conference USA in total defense and the country in sacks. With no bona fide stars entering the season, it's getting support from everywhere, including DE Logan Kelley, LB Evan Lee, and CB Josh Lumar. The Green Wave is pitching total team efforts on defense, which presents problems for a Warhawk line breaking in four new starters.

Who to watch: The one Green Wave player attracting the most interest from NFL scouts is massive LT Troy Kropog. It'll be up to he and his linemates to move the pile if Tulane is going to take advantage of Louisiana-Monroe's iffy run defense. With a little help, RB Andre Anderson has the potential to generate more than the 114 yards on 46 carries he's gained so far this season.

What will happen: Tulane and Louisiana-Monroe have both shown that they can survive a step up in class. Now, each has to prove it can handle a peer. In a matchup of equals, the Green Wave will earn its first win of the season, getting a 100-day from Anderson and remaining tough on the defensive side of the ball.

Line: Tulane -6

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1.5

Fearless Prediction: Tulane 27 ... UL Monroe 15

Houston (1-2) at Colorado State (1-1) — Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET

Why to watch: While Houston is scoring points in bunches, the defense has been non-existent, the main reason it's off to a 1-2 start in Kevin Sumlin's first season. Losing to Oklahoma State was no surprise, but getting bounced by rebuilding Air Force was a sign that the Cougars will have trouble winning the West division of Conference USA. Of course, it didn't help the team that Hurricane Ike was sweeping through Houston and forced the "home" game to be moved to SMU's Ford Stadium in Dallas. Colorado State will be looking for some answers as it comes out of its bye week. The Rams are still adjusting to a rookie head coach of their own, Steve Fairchild, and didn't look sharp in a loss to Colorado or a three-point win over Sacramento State. Expectations remain modest around Fort Collins, and no one is expecting an overnight turnaround.

Why Houston might win: A few misfires aside, the Cougar offense has been incendiary, averaging 40 points and 544 yards through the first three games. They'll spread out the field with four and five wide receivers, putting tons of pressure on a suspect Colorado State pass defense. Houston QB Case Keenum has been doing quite an impression of David Klingler and Andre Ware, leading the team in rushing and throwing 13 touchdowns to just one pick.

Why Colorado State might win: Houston has proven it can score, but can it stop anyone? That was a rhetorical question. Forget the game with Southern, which meant nothing in the picture. In the losses to Oklahoma State and Air Force, the Cougars were tagged for more than 1,000 yards, most of it coming on the ground. The Rams have a veteran offensive line and two backs, Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell, who are capable of keeping the Houston offense on the sidelines for long periods of time.

Who to watch: Mark Hafner's transition from tight end to wide receiver in the new Houston offense is going better than anyone on the staff could have imagined. He won't frighten opposing players with his speed or leaping ability, but he has great hands and a knack for finding soft spots in the defenses. He's already caught 22 passes, six which have gone for six.

What will happen: It's going to come down to the Houston passing attack versus the Colorado State running game. The Cougars rate an edge because of how well Keenum has been performing, but the outcome of this game will be in doubt deep into the fourth quarter.

Line: Houston -6

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2

Fearless Prediction: Houston 42 ... Colorado State 31

Alabama State (0-2) at UAB (0-3) — Saturday at 4 p.m. ET

Why to watch: This week's visit from Alabama State provides UAB with its best opportunity all year to snap a nine-game losing streak. It better deliver while it has a chance, or things might actually get worse in Birmingham. The Blazers continue to fight for Neil Callaway, including in last week's loss to Tennessee, but an obvious lack of depth and talent aren't easily overcome. With South Carolina in the on-deck circle, they'll need to take care of business on Saturday to avoid a winless September. The Hornets are a second-division team out of the SWAC, having already lost by double-digits to Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman. The last time these two schools met in 1995, both were members of I-AA.

Why Alabama State might win: The Hornets boast an aggressive, attacking defense that's only giving up 270 yards a game this season. Nine starters are back, including LB Rechard Johnson, who led the nation with 23 tackles for loss in 2007. On offense, big-play junior Rahmod Traylor should find plenty of running room going against a Blazer D that lacks girth on the inside and ranks dead last in the country in total defense.

Why UAB might win: After opening with Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, and Tennessee, the Blazers are battle-tested and ready to vent some frustration on a much weaker opponent. It'll be the Joe Webb Show for the fourth consecutive week as the multi-dimensional quarterback will once again take matters into his own hands as a passer and a playmaker. When he's not running through the Hornet D, he'll be looking for Frantrell Forrest, a rangy receiver with 19 receptions over the last two weeks.

Who to watch: As UAB tries to get more than just Webb and Forrest involved in the offensive gameplan, look for an expanded role for Rashaud Slaughter. A hybrid between a back and a receiver throughout his career, he's taking some direct snaps in the Blazers' new Vulcan formation, and has the quicks to make people miss in the open field.

What will happen: Knowing what's at stake, UAB won't waste any time taking advantage of a chance to win a game for the first time in 11 months. The Blazers will jump out to an early lead, riding 400 yards of total offense from Webb to a comfortable and long-awaited victory.

Line: No Line

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1

Fearless Prediction: UAB 34 ... Alabama State 16

Marshall (2-1) at Southern Miss (2-1) — Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET

Why to watch: It's obviously early, but as the pecking order starts fleshing out in the East Division of Conference USA, Southern Miss and Marshall don't want to fall behind favorites East Carolina and UCF. The Golden Eagles are off to a nice start under rookie coach Larry Fedora, beating two Sun Belt opponents and playing well in a loss to Auburn. Now, they get their first chance to see how they stack up against league competition. Marshall is also 2-1, but hasn't been as impressive reaching that point. The Herd's wins came against Illinois State and Memphis, and in its lone chance to shock the world, it got trampled, 51-14, by Wisconsin.

Why Marshall might win: While it might be easy to assume the Southern Miss defense is like the Nasty Bunch of the past, that simply isn't accurate. The Eagles are rebuilding on defense, especially on the interior of the front line. Each of this year's three opponents has run the ball well on Southern Miss, and Marshall won't flip the script. It'll put the ball in the hands of Darius Marshall, who already has a couple of 100-yards games and is averaging almost five yards a carry. The Herd offensive line has yet to allow a sack, which is helping the development of freshman QB Mark Cann.

Why Southern Miss might win: Although better days lie ahead for Fedora's offense, it's beginning to show signs of perking up. League-leading rusher Damion Fletcher forces the other team to respect the running game, and QB Austin Davis has helped the cause by tossing two touchdown passes in each game. The one-two receiving punch of TE Shawn Nelson and WR DeAndre Brown will give fits to a terrible Marshall pass defense. Getting behemoth LT Calvin Wilson back from injury will help everyone do his job better on offense.

Who to watch: LB Gerald McRath is the unquestioned star of the USM defense, but S Chico Hunter is set to assume the role when McRath leaves for the NFL. Just a sophomore, he has tremendous range and is comfortable as a run stopper and a pass defender. Especially good in the open field, he leads the team in solo tackles and ranks 20th in the country.

What will happen: Beating a solid Arkansas State team away from home was proof that Southern Miss is headed in the right direction. The Golden Eagles will remain on that trajectory, getting another balanced effort from the offense and just enough defensive stops to hold off Marshall.

Line: No Line

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: Southern Miss 27 ... Marshall 13

Rice (2-1) at Texas (2-0) — Saturday at 7 p.m. ET

Why to watch: Texas has steamrolled each of its first two victims, but after last week's game with Arkansas was moved to next week thanks to Hurricane Ike, this is still one of the Big 12's mystery teams . A visit from Rice won't answer that riddle. One certainty to come out of the first two weeks is that Longhorn QB Colt McCoy looks like a different player than the one that slogged through a sophomore slump last fall. He's been precise with his passes, elusive outside the pocket, and assertive as one of the team leaders. While the Owls drifted back to Earth a little with last week's loss to Vanderbilt, they're going to be a threat in Conference USA as long as Chase Clement is at the controls of the offense. A genuine gunslinger, he's already accounted for more than 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Why Rice might win: The Horns' on-going issues in the secondary haven't gone away. They're young in the defensive backfield and prone to giving up the long ball downfield. With Clement leading the way, the Owls boast a mature passing attack and a slew of capable targets. If Texas commits too many defensive resources to Jarett Dillard, James Casey will make it pay by pulling down a half-dozen receptions. If Rice can turn this game into a shootout, it has a chance to make UT very uncomfortable.

Why Texas might win: No matter what scheme or mix of personnel it tries, Rice simply can't stop anyone. It's the weekly knock on the Owls, who allow 33 points and more than 400 yards a game to teams far less potent than the one from Austin. McCoy will remain in the zone, dishing the ball around like a point guard to receivers Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley. When the ¿Horns stay on the ground, Fozzy Whitaker and Vondrell McGee will enjoy gaping holes running behind a line that'll toy with the Owls.

Who to watch: Texas LB Roddrick Muckelroy appears poised to deliver the breakthrough season Longhorn fans have been looking for since he arrived. He has picked up where he left off at the end of last year, leading the team in tackles and scoring his first career touchdown on a fumble recovery. The Horns need more leaders on defense, a role he's bucking to fill.

What will happen: It's back to business for Texas after last week's unscheduled bye. The Horns will get to 3-0 without breaking a sweat, using a balanced offense and a couple of turnovers to race past Rice by halftime. With the game against Arkansas now slated for next week, Mack Brown will be content to get his regulars off the field when the bulge reaches 28 points

Line: Texas -30.5

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2

Fearless Prediction: Texas 52 ... Rice 14

New Mexico (1-2) at Tulsa (2-0) — Saturday at 7:05 p.m. ET

Why to watch: While everyone justifiably fawns over BYU and East Carolina, Tulsa must be wondering what it needs to do to get more pub as a possible BCS buster. An impressive win over a ranked opponent would be a nice start, but the 2008 schedule isn't going to afford the Hurricane that opportunity. Instead, it'll have to settle for bludgeoning weaker schools and hoping to emulate last year's Hawaii program. Fresh off a building-block win over Arizona, New Mexico will be Tulsa's stiffest test this month. The Lobos are breaking in new starters everywhere, but beating the Wildcats for a second straight year could be the kind of game that turns a season around.

Why New Mexico might win: The dirty little secret about Tulsa is that the defense is going to struggle all year long. The Hurricane didn't face a quality offense in the first two games, yet is 110th nationally against the run and 97th in total defense. If UAB and North Texas can move the ball on the ground, Lobo RB Rodney Ferguson might have a career day. He leads the Mountain West in rushing, and has the grinder's mentality to extend drives and control the clock for the Lobos.

Why Tulsa might win: Paul Smith may no longer be with the program, but the Hurricane offense isn't skipping a beat. His replacement behind center, David Johnson, has tossed nine touchdowns without a pick and leads the country in passing efficiency. New Mexico corners DeAndre Wright and Glover Quin are terrific, but Tulsa has too many playmakers for the defense to stop. On a given Saturday, any of five or six Hurricane skill position players is capable of being the offensive star.

Who to watch: Wright or Quin versus Tulsa homerun hitter Brennan Marion will be one of the best games-within-the-game at Skelly Stadium. Marion has picked up where he left off last season, turning his first eight catches into 232 yards and a touchdown. Even when he's not making the play, he's opening up space for the other Hurricane receivers.

What will happen: New Mexico will score. Tulsa will score more. The Hurricane will be dragged into plenty of shootouts this fall, but has the offensive firepower to survive. Although Johnson will throw his first interceptions of the season, he'll compensate with three touchdown passes.

Line: Tulsa -10.5

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: Tulsa 38 ... New Mexico 34

TCU (3-0) at SMU (1-2) — Saturday at 8 p.m. ET

Why to watch: TCU and SMU renew their long-standing rivalry for the Iron Skillet that began in 1915. While BYU and Utah are receiving most of the national attention among Mountain West programs, the Horned Frogs are off to their third 3-0 start in the last six years and are a win or two away from earning a spot on the tail end of the Top 25. Last week's 17-point win over Stanford helped bolster a resume that also includes routs of New Mexico and Stephen F. Austin. As expected, the Mustangs are a work-in-progress capable of rising up and biting someone, but still a long way from Conference USA contention. In what could be a preview of this week's game, they provided little resistance last week in a 43-7 loss to heavily-favored Texas Tech.

Why TCU might win: The Frogs are doing what they do best under Gary Patterson, running the ball with authority and playing sound defense. SMU's 117th-ranked defense doesn't have the size or depth to contend with the TCU offensive line or a backfield-by-committee that includes Ryan Christian and Joseph Turner. QB Andy Dalton hasn't had to extend himself as a passer, but is second on the team with 163 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

Why SMU might win: The Mustangs' best¿and only¿chance of authoring upsets this season will revolve around a run-and-shoot offense that's foreign to most opposing defenses. While the numbers will be sporadic, QB Bo Levi Mitchell is learning every week, and has a couple of terrific receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson. The two have combined for 41 receptions and nine touchdowns, and will provide a unique challenge for the TCU defensive backfield.

Who to watch: DE Jerry Hughes and S Steven Coleman are two of the main reasons TCU lead the country in turnover margin. While Hughes has three fumble recoveries, Coleman has three picks, making for an awful matchup for an SMU team that's turned the ball over 10 times in its two meetings with FBS teams.

What will happen: TCU is on a roll that's not about to be stopped SMU, even with Oklahoma lurking on the schedule next week. The Frogs will dominate the turnover margin and rush for more than 250 yards en route to another blowout win

Line: TCY -27.5

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1.5

Fearless Prediction: TCU 47 ... SMU 13

Nicholls State (0-0) at Memphis (0-3) — Saturday at 8 p.m. ET

Why to watch: You'll have to forgive Nicholls State if it spends most of the game trying to shake off layers of rust. Inclement weather caused the cancellation of the Colonels' first two games, making this one of the latest openers for a program in college football history. Fans of the NFL Draft will want to monitor the play of S Ladarius Webb, who could be the first FCS player chosen next April. A visit from a smaller school couldn't come at a better time for Memphis, which has limped out of the gate with an 0-3 start. After getting smoked by Ole Miss, the Tigers suffered back-to-back heartbreakers against Rice and Marshall, which will test the team's fortitude resiliency.

Why Nicholls State might win: Well, the Colonels certainly will be healthier and fresher than most programs at this stage of the season. The program is built around a power running game and a veteran offensive line that'll have success against Memphis' 90th-ranked run defense. The Tigers have just two sacks in three games, another sign that Nicholls State is capable of winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Colonels beat Rice in last year's first game, so they know they're capable of taking down a Conference USA team.

Why Memphis might win: The Colonels have their issues generating pocket pressure, which means Arkelon Hall will have ample time to find one of his endless array of big receivers. Maurice Jones, Carlos Singleton, Duke Calhoun, and Steven Black are all on pace for 50 catches, so Nicholls State will need three more players of Webb's caliber to get in the way of this aerial assault.

Who to watch: In his final season of eligibility, Jones has really distinguished himself as Memphis' big-play threat at wide receiver. He has tremendous size and speed, and is a bear to bring down after the catch. With an average of almost 20 yards a catch the last two years, he's the one Tiger most likely to stretch the Colonel defense and make a momentum-changing play.

What will happen: Memphis has been on the brink of winning its first game in each of the last two weekends. Fueled by the passing of Hall and running of QB Will Hudgens near the goal line, it'll finally break through against outmanned Nicholls State.

Line: No Line

Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1

Fearless Prediction: Memphis 35 ... Nicholls State 17

New Mexico State (0-1) at UTEP (0-2) — Saturday at 9:05 p.m. ET

Why to watch: The only certainty when New Mexico State and UTEP get together is that the quarterbacks will take center stage. Both programs like to air it out and don't play much defense, meaning Chase Holbrook and Trevor Vittatoe will pile up the passing yards. The Miners and head coach Mike Price are entering must-win territory after opening the year with ugly losses to Buffalo and Texas. They've done little right in the losses, and the bad vibes around the program just aren't going away. The Aggies got a late start to the season because of bad weather, kicking things off with a 38-7 loss to Nebraska a week ago. Like its host New Mexico State is mired in a bad situation, needing something positive to light a spark. A win in El Paso might qualify.

Why New Mexico State might win: It's all about Holbrook and the prolific Aggie passing game. He struggled in Lincoln, but the UTEP defense will prove to be far more generous. The Miners have allowed 42 points in each the first two games and lack the talent, especially up front, keep Holbrook in check. He'll shine in the Sun Bowl, getting all day to play pitch-and-catch with Chris Williams, A.J. Harris, and Wes Neiman.

Why UTEP might win: While the Miners will have similar success through the air with Vittatoe, they've got the edge in balance. UTEP will soften a weak Aggie defense by running Terrell Jackson behind a solid line that includes all-league candidates Robby Felix and Mike Aguayo. Plus, it's expecting to get back Donald Buckram, a speedster who can get around tackle and spring into the secondary. New Mexico State can't stop the run, which gives the Miners more options than simply ducking and chucking.

Who to watch: Senior TE Jamar Hunt has emerged as a viable option for the UTEP passing game. After learning Jake Sears, he's almost matched last year's dozen grabs after just two games. At 6-7 and 260 pounds, he's built like of the Miner tackles, yet flashes the soft hands and athletic ability to earn Vittatoe's confidence,

What will happen: Neither team plays much defense, so it should be a track meet with both schools putting points on the board. UTEP is consumed by a sense of urgency, and has the more balanced offense and home-field advantage to stave off New Mexico State's upset bid.

Line: Stanford -9

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: UTEP 34 ... New Mexico State 24


For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to the CollegeFootballNews.com.

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