Waiver review: Reds making overhauls?

by Mike Harmon

Mike is a contributor for the FOXSports.com fantasy group. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones may appear in his show or column.


Updated: May 14, 2008, 1:56 PM EST 4 comments

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In theory, we should have a pretty good idea of how players and teams will perform after six weeks, shouldn't we?

Sure, the fact that the Royals, Giants, Nationals and Orioles rank among the league's lowest run-scoring teams comes as no surprise, but did you think the Blue Jays, Rockies and Indians would rank in the bottom 10 in the category as well? Or that Ryan Howard would be batting .171? Or that Cliff Lee would suddenly possess exemplary control and a sub-1.00 ERA?

How about the fact that the Marlins are tied with the Cubs and Diamondbacks for the best winning percentage in all of baseball? Confused? Don't worry. There's plenty of baseball left to be played. "B-b-b-b-baby, you ain't seen nothin' yet."

In the never several weeks, we'll begin to see hordes of new prospects attempt to make their mark at the elite level. The ever-changing Reds are once again in last place and are rumored to be contemplating a complete makeover (will Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn be playing elsewhere this summer?). Joining Johnny Cueto (is he long for your fantasy roster as he experiences growing pains) and Edinson Volquez is former A's prospect and strikeout machine Jared Burton. It won't be long before Jay Bruce takes over for the struggling Corey Patterson in center field. Patterson had four hits Monday, but Bruce is the future.

And can we just work Joba Chamberlain into the New York rotation already?

Anyway, it's time to traverse the waiver wire once again. Let's start in St. Louis.

Adds

St. Louis outfielder Ryan Ludwick has hit safely in 11 of his past 12 appearances to raise his average to .346. He's batted .432 (16-for-37) during this stretch with four home runs and 10 RBI.

Mark DeRosa has been one of the more unheralded utilitymen in the league this season. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

Remember this off-season when we chronicled the puzzling home/road splits of Angels start Ervin Santana? We may have found his batting counterpart (non-Coors) in uber-versatile Mark DeRosa of the Cubs. They don't call them "the friendly confines" for nothing. DeRosa owns a miserable .132 road average this season, a stark and mystifying contrast to his robust .391 home mark. He's also driven in 17 runs at Wrigley and is currently enjoying a modest four-game hitting streak during the current homestand. He can play first base, third base, second base and the outfield, offering spot relief for those day-to-day injuries and off days.

Oakland continues to receive stellar production from outfielder Emil Brown, who continues to drive in runs in buckets (he ranks second to Josh Hamilton in the AL with 33) and has improved his batting eye in May. He's batting .311 (14-for-45) with eight RBI in 10 May games with four multi-hit efforts.

Everyone's favorite producer of board games is swinging a hot bat in Texas. Sorry, I couldn't resist. Milton Bradley's homered in three of his past six games and carries a strong .311 average into Tuesday's action. In fact, he's nearly matched his April RBI production with nine in his first 11 May games (he had 12 in April).

Akinori Iwamura started slowly, but the Rays infielder has found his stroke of late. He currently owns a 10-game hitting streak during which he's recorded six multi-hit games. He's hit .391 (18-for-46) during this streak to raise his average 56 points.

Iwamura's teammate, Dioner Navarro, ended a three-game funk in which he recorded one hit in nine at-bats with a 3-for-3, two-RBI performance against the Yankees. Navarro's batting .367 (22-for-60) with 11 RBI since returning from the disabled list in late April. Although he's not offering anything in the power department (one home run and three doubles), his strong average is certainly a boost for fantasy owners who have secured their power brokers elsewhere.

Ted Lilly's rebounded brilliantly from a disastrous start to the season with four consecutive quality starts (three wins). He's pitched to a strong 2.42 ERA in these starts with 25 strikeouts in 26 innings. He'll next face Jake Peavy and the Padres, a matchup sure to bring out his best stuff.

Todd Wellemeyer's established himself as a solid starting option for Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa in St. Louis. Following a rough patch to end April, he's found his groove in two May starts against division rivals Chicago and Milwaukee. He allowed four runs (two earned) in 11 innings in those starts (1.64 ERA) to reduce his season ERA to 3.56. Most impressively, he's struck out 42 batters in 48 innings, significant punch to be added off the waiver wire.

Colorado starter Aaron Cook continues to be ignored by fantasy owners despite posting his sixth straight victory over the weekend. He's pitched to an incredible 1.90 ERA during his current streak, but doesn't strike out many hitters. With just 23 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings, that's a bit of an understatement. However, he's doing precisely what pitchers must to achieve success in Colorado. He's inducing 2.45 groundballs per flyball allowed.

Eric Gagne called for a mental break after blowing five of his early-season save opportunities. Milwaukee turned to middle reliever Brian Shouse to step into the role. Shouse had vultured three victories while pitching to a 3.00 ERA. He picked up his first save on Sunday. There's also the possibility Shouse shares save opportunities with rubber-armed reliever Salomon Torres, so monitor the situation closely.

Jason Isringhausen was quoted as saying he'd been pitching "like a second grader" before surrendering his closer role. Tony LaRussa turned to Ryan Franklin, who has saved two games this past week. Franklin isn't cut from the traditional closer mold, as he's struck out only eight batters in 19 innings, but he surrenders fewer than one hit per inning to yield a stellar 1.89 ERA. I expect Isringhausen to reclaim the role before long (he pitched in long relief on Monday), so grab the save opportunities from Franklin while they're available.

We keep waiting for Twins starter Livan Hernandez to blow up and fade into the sunset, but he's receiving phenomenal run support of late (31 runs in his past three starts) and has been cruising to victory. He won his third straight decision on Monday, scattering 10 hits in six innings, while allowing three earned runs. He's pitched to an eye-popping 2.05 ERA this month. His propensity to surrender the long ball and his lack of strikeout punch is disconcerting, but he eats innings (save your jokes) and makes for a solid spot starter.

Starter Matt Garza's been a strong contributor to the Rays' hot start, and he's been one of the game's finest young hurlers in May. He pitched seven shutout innings in Monday's win over New York, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out three batters. He's allowed just three earned runs in 19 2/3 innings (1.37 ERA). His strikeout total leaves something to be desired (eight in those 19 2/3 innings), but he's making the big pitches when they count.

Tom Gorzelanny appeared on many sleeper lists following his strong 2007 season. He was quickly jettisoned to the waiver wire after pitching horribly to open the year, but he's turned things around with three solid outings in a row. He's allowed five earned runs in these outings, covering 17 1/3 innings (2.60 ERA). Granted, his control remains spotty (a dizzying 14 walks in these starts), so the potential for a negative slide remains. He'll next face the Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend, a team that's responsible for his bloated season ERA. This is the true test of whether he warrants consideration at the end of your staff. If he can tame the Cubs, then jump onboard for his next turn thereafter.

Shawn Marcum pitched another gem in his battle with fellow 2008 ace Cliff Lee. Unfortunately, Marcum received a no decision for his eight shutout innings. He's allowed just two earned runs in his 23 1/3 innings in May (0.77 ERA) and continues to rack up strikeouts as well, having fanned 49 hitters in 56 2/3 innings.

Mark Reynolds was on fire to start the season, but he's cooled off significantly since then. (Steve Dykes / Getty Images)

Drop Candidates In The Offing

Slugger Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks last homered on April 25 and has driven in only five runs in 14 games since that date. During this period, he's batted an anemic .167 (9-for-54) while striking out 24 times. His big swing portends to a power surge down the line. Unfortunately, some fantasy owners don't have the bench capacity to ride out this downturn.

Also on bench duty with a potential drop in the offing is Rays infielder Evan Longoria. His contract mandates he stays with the big club, so he'll continue to see regular at-bats. Alas, with the exception of his home run heroics against the Angels on Friday, that hasn't meant much. He's batting just .154 in 39 May at-bats with 12 strikeouts. He'll catch up to big league pitching eventually, but it's a tough thing to ride out.

Jered Weaver next takes the hill against the White Sox, a team that's historically had a phobia of the state of California. However, he's stumbling on the wire right now following an abbreviated outing against the Royals in his last turn. He allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He's allowed four or more earned runs in four of his past six starts, a terrible stretch is which his ERA rose over 3.5 runs.

Another pitcher spiraling downward of late is Johnny Cueto. He turned our heads in spring training and blasted out of the gates strong in April. He's won just once in his past seven starts with three quality starts and four debacles. He's also allowed five or more earned runs in four of his past six starts, sending his ERA soaring by 3.88 runs. He continues to strike out hitters at a rate of one per inning and four per walk allowed. The splits are there for a huge rebound at some point, but he needs to start working off-speed pitches into the repertoire and inducing more groundballs to make it happen. Stash him on the bench, if possible, and wait for this young star to rediscover the magic.

Mark Buehrle of the White Sox has been positively maddening for fantasy owners this season. He's produced four quality starts and has been batted in four others, the latest of which came against the Angels when he allowed eight runs, six earned, on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

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