FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for Wednesday September 28

FanDuel MLB

Aug 23, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 28

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Wednesday’s MLB action kicks off with one one early game at 2:10PM EST and an additional 14 games on the 7:00PM EST Main Slate.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period Score Pitcher Salary Pitcher % Hitter % Hitter $/Player Value
Season 255.5 $ 8,652 25% 75% $ 3,293 7.30
5 Day 243.5 $ 9,980 29% 71% $ 3,128 6.96
Prev Day 281.8 $ 5,900 17% 83% $ 3,638 8.05

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

FanDuel MLB

Sep 18, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Jose De Leon (87) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Dahl-USA TODAY Sports

The Wednesday Main Slate pitching is very interesting as we have one top priced ace in Jake Arrieta with all remaining pitching options under $10k. My concern with Arrieta is that the Cubs have nothing further to play for and I am not willing to pay $11k for a pitcher who will not likely go deep into the game.

Jose De Leon ($7,400): On Tuesday’s slate, De Leon was initially scheduled to pitch against the Padres before a late change inserted Kenta Maeda into the rotation. On that loaded slate, De Leon was far off the radar but on a far less pitching heavy day, De Leon is squarely in play as a top value play.

Over the last 30 days, the Padres have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball and have a 25.1% K rate which makes this one of the best match ups to target on Wednesday.

De Leon has made only three big league starts, however one of those games against this same Padres team where he delivered 48 FanDuel points on a 6 inning 9 strikeout winning performance.

Although De Leon has only managed a 21.5% K rate thus far, his minor league numbers reflect an elite strikeout rate of 32-33% over the last two seasons.  This is a great spot to target a high upside arm in an elite match and as a solid road favorite (-155) this is a perfect night to roster the Dodgers young stud!

FanDUel MLB

Aug 6, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez (28) and first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) take the field in the first inning against the New York Mets at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Another night of baseball and another night where the Texas Rangers are one of the top projected offenses on the board. Initially I was not looking to highlight them as I assumed most players would see an opposing right-hander and load up on the usual left handed bats as we have been however this match up may allow us to be a bit contrarian while targeting the same team.

Chase Anderson exhibits reverse splits giving up a near 40% hard contact to right-handed batters and a whopping 1.91 HR/9 rate. On the season, Anderson was surrendered a ..387 wOBA and .559 slugging percentage to RHB and I intend to stack the Rangers righties in this spot.

Adrian Beltre ($3,600), Ian Desmond ($3,900) and Carlos Gomez ($3,500) make for a reasonably priced stack and I would ensure you target Gomez first as he has been one of the best DFS performers for the Rangers, putting up 12 points per game over the last two weeks.

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Outside of Texas, I will be looking to stack the Detroit Tigers bats as they take on Zach McAllister and the Indians. McAllister is another reverse splits pitcher, giving up a 34% hard contact rate and .344 wOBA to right-handers this season.

The Tigers bats also have some solid BvP history against McAllister for those of you who like to target those historical plays. Miguel Cabrera ($3,900), Ian Kinsler ($3,700) & Victor Martinez ($3,200) are all batting over .360 against McAllister and I love the idea of a full on stack including J.D. Martinez who remains an incredible value at only $3,400 with the upside he has.

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Sep 26, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers left fielder Carlos Gomez (14) hits an rbi double during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Below you will find my initial lineup for Wednesday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

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Best of luck tonight gamers!

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