Sep 12, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the DraftKings sign board during the match with FC Dallas playing against New York City FC at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
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DraftKings MLB Picks For September 28
Houston and Seattle play the only day game, so we have 14 games in the main tournament tonight. We have a large middle tier with a couple of aces on DraftKings. Should we pay up for pitching, or are there good cheap options? Let’s check the past stats for some insight.
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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Sep 7, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Alex Meyer (40) pitches the ball against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
The Rangers are 6-27(.222) against Chase Anderson, but they have driven in four runs.
The only blemish Seth Lugo had on his record the first time he faced the Marlins was a two run homer by Christian Yelich. Those were the only runs he gave up. Can he keep the Fish at bay again?
Sonny Gray has held the Angels to a .224 average in 147 at bats, so what is he doing up here? Well, this is a start in name only for Gray. He will be on a strict pitch count, and will be lucky to make it through the lineup once, let alone get a chance for a win. This would be like paying $6,400 for a long relief pitcher. There is no value to be had here.
Jose De Leon gave up three runs on five hits in six innings to the Padres in his first major league start. However, he racked up nine strikeouts. He has been unable to match that success in the two starts since, but don’t be surprised if he rings up a bunch of Padres again.
If you want to use a pitcher from the A’s-Angels tilt, make it Alex Meyer. The A’s are 1-11 against him lifetime in relief appearances with five strikeouts. Can he carry that success over to a start? If he can, he will be a great bargain at $4,100.
Blake Snell has never faced the White Sox. He has a solid 3.65 ERA in his rookie campaign, but his WHIP still sits at a staggering 1.64. His penchant for allowing base runners really limits his upside in DraftKings.
Sep 22, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Jake Arrieta ($11,500): The Pirates are only hitting .214 against Arrieta in 224 at bats with five homers, 17 RBI, and 58 strikeouts. Those are pretty good numbers, but it he worth the high price tag? After a subpar July in which Arrieta posted a 4.88 ERA, he is back on track with a 6-2 record and 3.08 ERA since August 1st. Arrieta is once again one of the least risky DFS plays.
Jeff Samardzija ($8,900): The Rockies are hitting .254 against Samardzija in 138 at bats, but they only have two homers and ten runs scored. They have also struck out 38 times. This game is in San Francisco, so Shark should be safe to use. He has a 2.85 ERA since August 1st, so his struggles seem to be behind him.
Anthony DeSclafani ($9,600): The price is the thing keeping me from being high on DeSclafani. Also, the Cardinals own a solid .255 average against him in 98 at bats. DeSclafani has been plagued by the long ball against the Redbirds. They have hit six off of him already, but have still only scored nine runs. The 23 strikeouts are a solid total, but nothing really jumps of the page for DeScalfani.
Tyler Chatwood ($7,700): Chatwood gets a nice park upgrade moving out of Coors Field. The Giants have a good average against him (.255 in 149 at bats), but they only have two homers and 11 runs scored. Chatwood only has 20 strikeouts though, which lessens his margin for error.
MIguel Gonzalez ($7,300): The Rays have clubbed seven homers against Gonzalez in 127 at bats, but have only scored ten runs and own a paltry .213 average. Gonzalez has also struck out 27, which is a notch below elite, but is pretty good for this price range. Four of those homers are by Desmond Jennings, who is no longer with the active roster. If you are looking for an under-the-radar starter who can get you around 20 DraftKings points, Gonzalez is worth a look.
Sep 25, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) hits a solo home run in the fourth inning against New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Chris Tillman has given up a ridiculous 20 home runs to the Blue Jays in 295 at bats. You know there are some good stacks in there! Jose Bautista ($4,700) is 12-44(.273) with six walks, four doubles, three homers, and seven RBI. Josh Donaldson ($4,900) is 8-32(.250) with four walks, four doubles, a homer, and seven driven in. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,600) is 17-56(.304) with three doubles, four walks, three homers, and four RBI. Kevin Pillar ($3,200) is 8-22(.364) with a double, three homers, and five RBI. Michael Saunders ($3,800) is 5-19(.263)with two walks, a double, two homers and three RBI. Russell Martin ($3,500) is 6-12 with six walks, three doubles, and a RBI. Devon Travis ($3,500) is 3-8 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and seven RBI against Tillman. Troy Tulowitzki ($4,000) is 3-9 with three homers and five RBI. Melvin Upton, Jr ($3,200) is no stranger to Tillman either. He is 3-14 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI from his days with the Rays. Ryan Goins ($2,300) is 9-25(.360) with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. You can’t afford all of these guys, but I would definitely use at least two of them.
If you are going to the game at Rogers Centre tonight, sit somewhere in the outfield. The Orioles have clubbed seven homers against Francisco Liriano in only 88 at bats. Chris Davis ($3,800) has two hits in three at bats with a homer and two RBI. Adam Jones ($3,000) is 6-18 with a double, three homers, and five driven in. Mark Trumbo ($3,900) only has four hits in 18 at bats, but he has three walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI. Matt Wieters ($2,700) is 3-11 with three walks, a double, and a solo homer.
There is a home run stack to be had against Jake Arrieta. Josh Bell ($2,300) has a single, two walks, and a solo homer in four at bats against Arrieta. David Freese ($2,700) has three hits in 12 at bats with a solo homer. Matt Joyce ($3,200) is 7-20 with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Arrieta. Andrew McCutchen ($3,900) is 11-37(.297) with five walks, four doubles, and a RBI. Gregory Polanco ($4,200) only has five hits in 30 at bats, but he has a walk, a homer, and four RBI. Sean Rodriguez ($3,400) has two hits in six at bats with a homer and two RBI off of Arrieta.
Zach McAllister has not gone more than two innings in an outing all year, so it would surprise me if he even makes it to the fifth inning in his start. However, the Tigers could beat him up while he is around. Miguel Cabrera ($5,000) is 9-25(.360) with four walks, two doubles, and four RBI. J.D. Martinez ($4,200) only has two hits in ten at bats with two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,900) is 11-24(.458) with a walk, four doubles, a homer, and eight RBI against McAllister. Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($2,700) only has two hits in 14 at bats, but they are both for extra bases with one being a solo homer.
Matt Carpenter ($3,800) already has six hits in 12 at bats against Anthony DeSclafani, including three walks, a double, a triple, two homers, and three RBI. Randal Grichuk ($4,200) is also hitting .500 in eight at bats with a triple and a solo homer. Brandon Moss ($3,300) is 5-18(.278) with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against DeSclafani. Jhonny Peralta ($2,900) has three hits in nine at bats with a walk and a solo homer. Yadier Molina‘s ($3,300) only hit in 11 at bats is a solo homer.
Ervin Santana has been brilliant over the last ten weeks or so, but the Royals have still hit him hard. Alcides Escobar ($3,200) is 9-32(.281) with a double and five RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,200) is 7-21 with six walks, two doubles, two homers, and nine RBI against Santana. Salvador Perez ($3,300) has two hits in seven at bats with a homer and two RBI. Alex Gordon ($3,800) is only 8-38(.211), but he has seven walks, two doubles, two homers, and five RBI against Santana.
The Dodgers are hitting a staggering .453 against Luis Perdomo in 75 at bats with 16 runs scored! Yasmani Grandal ($4,100) has two hits in six at bats with a homer and three RBI. Yasiel Puig ($5,000) is 5-7 with a walk, a triple, and three RBI. Howie Kendrick ($3,400) is 4-9 with three doubles and two RBI. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,300) also has four hits in nine at bats with three walks, a double, and three RBI. Josh Reddick ($4,300) is a perfect 3-3 with a solo homer. Corey Seager ($5,100) is 5-12, but has no counting stats. Chase Utley ($3,700) has four hits in 11 at bats with two RBI against Perdomo.
Brett Gardner ($4,700) is 8-32 with two walks, two doubles, and four RBI against Clay Buchholz. Chase Headley ($3,400) has four hits in ten at bats with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Mark Teixeira ($4,000) is only 5-31(.161) against Buchholz, but he has three walks, two homers and seven RBI off of him. Gary Sanchez ($5,100) doubled and drove in two in his three at bats against Buchholz.
Sep 17, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun (8) watches his two RBI home run during the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Braun ($5,300) is 12-34(.353) with a walk, a double, three homers, and five RBI off of Cole Hamels from his days in the National League. The rest of the current Brewers are 4-18 with no runs and nine strikeouts.
Arizona is hitting .377 against Gio Gonzalez in 69 at bats, but has not hit a homer off of him yet. That may change tonight.
Nolan Arenado ($4,200) is 6-16(.375) with a walk, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Jeff Samardzija. Gerardo Parra ($2,600) is 9-24(.375) with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. Carlos Gonzalez ($4,100) only has four hits in 23 at bats(.174), but he has a walk and a solo homer.
Adam Duvall ($4,800) is 4-10 with two walks, two homers, and six RBI against Mike Leake. Ramon Cabrera ($3,000) has two hits in four at bats with a double and three RBI. Brandon Phillips ($4,200) is 4-8 off of Leake with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI.
Trevor Brown ($2,300) has two hits in five at bats against Tyler Chatwood with a homer and two RBI. Hunter Pence ($3,400) is just 3-19(.158), but he has a walk, a homer, and four RBI.
Mike Trout ($5,700) is 7-33(.212) with two walks, three homers, and four RBI against Sonny Gray. Albert Pujols ($) is 8-33(.242) with a walk, a homer, and four RBI.
Mike Napoli ($3,500) has destroyed Michael Fulmer. Napoli is 4-8 with a walk, a double, two homers, and seven RBI off of him already. Chris Gimenez ($2,100) has two hits in four at bats with a solo homer. Carlos Santana ($4,800) has three hits in eight at bats with a walk, a double, and two driven in.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from our experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picksand alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!