Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for July 19

Arrieta has allowed 15 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings over his last three starts.

Nam Y. Huh/AP

Welcome to today’s daily fantasy post! Remember that you can find our posts on the new DFS home page, as well as the fantasy page. Bookmark those sites now!

Also, please scroll to the bottom of this article to see the latest tweets from Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler), D.J. Foster (@FOXSportsFoster), Adam Meyer (@FOXSportsMeyer) and me (@jhalpin37). That way, if information surfaces for any last minute changes, you can see our thoughts instantly.

Let’s get to today’s interesting facts, using DraftKings prices for the 15 night games. Please note that much of the information in this post is being published several hours prior to game times, so check MLB lineups later to confirm that any recommended players are included.

5 Things to Watch:

1. Jake Arrieta and Noah Syndergaard are the most expensive pitchers on the board, but because they face each other they’re not great plays. If you want to use one, Arrieta is a -155 favorite … Cardinals SP Carlos Martinez ($10,200) is the biggest favorite at -200 for a home start against the Padres … Aside from Rays-Rockies, the highest projected run total is Giants-Red Sox at 10.5.

2. Orioles C Matt Wieters got an X-ray on his right foot after getting hit with a pitch on Monday, and his status for tonight is TBD. Teammate Chris Davis hopes to return after sitting out Monday with an illness.

3. Nationals pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez ($4,000) will make his MLB debut against the Dodgers. Lopez has a 3.19 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings across Double A and Triple A this season, and hit 100 mph on the radar gun in last week’s Futures Game. However, in his two Triple-A starts, Lopez walked six batters in 11 innings.

4. In handedness news, the season’s top two lefty killers that actually face lefties tonight are Jayson Werth ($4,500) and Danny Valencia ($3,800). Werth has a .451 wOBA with a 1.067 OPS vs. LHP this season, while Valencia is at .450/1.068.

5. Yo, BvPers: Ian Desmond ($3,900) is 10-for-15 with two homers vs. Tim Lincecum. Desmond has been cold since the All-Star break, going just one-for-16. Are you on board with his Lincecum-killing ways? … Valencia is seven-for-13 with a couple of homers vs. Dallas Keuchel … Curtis Granderson ($4,300) has three homers in 30 at bats vs. Arrieta … Alex Gordon ($3,500) has whiffed 15 times in 25 at bats vs. Danny Salazar.

Adam Meyer’s daily fantasy baseball suggestions…

Editor’s note: For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.

I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.

Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I emphasize hitters with numbers much higher than the 2015 averages.

Yesterday’s recap:

From Monday’s suggestions, Joey Votto, Trevor Story, and Stephen Piscotty homered. Jose Fernandez struck out 14 Phillies and was our top SP.

Must-Start of the day: Trevor Story, COL

He has a .301 ISO and a .403 wOBA against lefties this season. When Story is facing a southpaw at Coors Field, he has a .362 ISO and a .420 wOBA.

Deal of the day: Reynaldo Lopez, WAS

I love scrolling to the bottom of the SP pool on DraftKings when looking for a second starter. Today, we find five pitchers at $4,000. In 2016, Lopez has notched 109 strikeouts in 87.1 innings in the minors. With the expensive hitters at Coors Field, and the other big hitters with favorable matchups, Lopez could be a great salary relief at SP2.

Avoid of the day: Alex Gordon, KC

(See “5 Things”)

Stack of the day: Detroit Tigers

Last night, I picked Detroit and they scored one run. One! So, they’re due for an offensive explosion tonight, right? Sure. Tommy Milone has a 6.20 ERA on the road this season (17 earned runs in 24.2 innings). Give me Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, and Justin Upton (again) as a small stack.

Starting pitchers:

Noah Syndergaard, NYM – He has the third-best K/9 rate in the bigs right now (10.9 K/9). Thor has hammered at least five Ks in six of the past seven starts.

Carlos Martinez, STL – The strikeout total has been all over the place for Martinez this season, but he’s recently produced back-to-back starts with at least seven Ks, including an 11-K performance in his last start.

Danny Salazar, CLE – After dropping last night’s game to the Royals, Cleveland turns to Salazar who has a solid reputation against Kansas City this season: 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15.2 innings of work.

Reynaldo Lopez, WAS – “Deal of the day.”

Catchers:

Victor Martinez, DET – He has a .200 ISO against southpaws in 2016.

Nick Hundley, COL – He has a .267 ISO against lefties this year.

First basemen:

David Ortiz, BOS – He has a .387 ISO and .477 wOBA against righties this season.

Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – He has a .254 ISO against righties this year.

Brandon Belt, SF – He has a .188 ISO and a .374 wOBA against righties in 2016.

Joey Votto, CIN – He has a .216 ISO and a .394 wOBA against righties this year.

Second basemen:

Ian Kinsler, DET – He has a .248 ISO against lefties this year.

Devon Travis, TOR – He has a .245 ISO against righties this season.

Logan Forsythe, TB – He has a .315 wOBA against righties and could likely leadoff tonight in Colorado.

Third basemen:

Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .302 ISO and a .415 wOBA against righties this sseaon.

Danny Valencia, OAK – (See “5 Things”)

Nolan Arenado, COL – He has a .256 ISO and a .404 wOBA against lefties this year.

Evan Longoria, TB – He has a .264 ISO against righties in 2016.

Nick Castellanos, DET – He has a .242 ISO against lefties this season.

Shortstops:

Trevor Story, COL – “Must-start of the day.”

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR – He has a .231 ISO against righties this season.

Brad Miller, TB – He has a .228 ISO against righties this year.

Outfielders:

Ian Desmond, TEX – (See “5 Things”)

Carlos Gonzalez, COL – He has a .238 ISO against lefties this season.

Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – He has a .289 ISO and a .404 wOBA against righties this year.

Justin Upton, DET – Surprisingly, he was the only Tiger to succeed on Monday. Upton homered last night and he has a .305 wOBA against lefties this season.

Adam Duvall, CIN – He has a .304 ISO against righties this season.

Max Kepler, MIN – He has a .279 ISO against righties this year.

Ryan Raburn, COL – He has a .258 ISO against lefties this season.

Miguel Sano, MIN – He has a .202 ISO against righties in 2016.

FOX Fantasy Baseball Join or Create a Free League
Play Now!