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Fantasy impact: Friday's deadline deals

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John Halpin

John Halpin has been a fantasy contributor for since 2007. He has written and co-hosted webcasts about fantasy football for, and managed websites for the NHL, the U.S. Olympic Committee and USA Network. Listen to his "Fantasy 15 Podcast" on and follow him on Twitter.

This article looks at the fantasy impact of all major trades made on Friday, July 31. For the real-life trade buzz from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, click here.

Indians trade C Victor Martinez to Red Sox

Click here for the fantasy impact of this deal.

Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn to Tigers

The Mariners have traded starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn to the Tigers for a couple of young pitchers, rejecting the theory that Wednesday's acquisition of shortstop Jack Wilson meant that the M's wouldn't trade away any name players. Take that, experts! Washburn's fantasy numbers have been tremendous this season — he's 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. If you drafted him late, he might be your favorite player of 2009. And while I hate to be a wet blanket, I think he's due to come back to earth. Washburn's .249 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) suggests lots of luck. His strand rate of 79.5 percent suggests more luck. He's been pitching in a great, big ballpark in front of an excellent outfield defense that's great at running down his numerous flyballs. Washburn gets a big park in Detroit as well, but as for the rest ... let's just say that if I owned Washburn, I'd try to sell now while making the case that his numbers are going to get even better for his new, better team. If you can't trade Washburn, I'm not suggesting that you dump him. Just don't expect much more of the terrific production you've been getting from him so far. At first glance, it appears that the effect on the two teams' rotations will be a straight swap between Washburn and lefty Luke French, who is on his way from Detroit to Seattle. The 23-year-old French has made five starts for the Tigers this month, posting a 4.64 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. French might not be ready to be an overly effective big-league starter, but if he gets the ball every five days in front of the same Mariner defense that helped Washburn all year, he could put up decent numbers. In an AL-only league, I'd try to grab French ASAP. French is currently owned in 0.8 percent of leagues. The other pitcher on his way to the Mariner organization is Mauricio Robles, a fireballing, 20-year-old lefty who's 8-6 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP at two levels of A ball this season. Baseball Prospectus prospect guru Kevin Goldstein tweeted the following today about Robles: "... big arm, 90-94 mph with +command, breaking ball flashes plus, prob. bullpen in end." Robles is probably at least two or three years away from Detroit, and I wouldn't bother claiming him in even the deepest AL keeper league.

A's trade SS Orlando Cabrera to Twins

As has been rumored for awhile, the Twins have acquired SS Orlando Cabrera from the A's for SS prospect Tyler Ladendorf. 9874244 From a ballpark standpoint alone, Cabrera might see improvement in his batting average and power numbers (thank God for artificial turf). My first instinct was to think that he'd steal more bases as well, but it turns out that the A's (100) have more stolen base attempts than the Twins (72) this season. Cabrera has 11 steals right now, and should finish with his usual 15-20. Overall, his value doesn't change much. The Twins already had a crowded infield, with Brendan Harris and Nick Punto both getting time at shortstop since 2B Alexi Casilla returned from the minors. Cabrera should play every day, so Harris and Punto stand to lose time. Also, with Casilla always just one bonehead move away from a benching or promotion, and manager Ron Gardenhire now having even more replacement options ... let's just say that if you're a Twins' middle infielder not named Cabrera, your value probably just decreased due to uncertainty. One more thing: Cabrera's a good defensive shortstop, which could help the Twins' pitchers a bit. Not a lot, but a bit. The trade creates an opening at shortstop for the A's, and if you think they're going to let Bobby Crosby play every day for any length of time, you're crazy. I mentioned Cliff Pennington yesterday in the event of this very scenario, and I bet he comes up very soon. Plenty of speed (27 SB at Triple A), good eye, not much of a bat. Make a pre-emptive claim on Pennington in AL-only leagues. (UPDATE: Pennington started at shortstop and batted ninth Friday - he's the man.) Ladendorf, 21, seems to be a stereotypical A's player because he has a discerning eye (15 BB in 139 PA this season). He started the year by tearing up a rookie league, but he's struggling with a .559 OPS in his first 15 A-ball games. Prospect experts seem to like Ladendorf's upside, but trying to get him in a keeper league would be very speculative. I don't think it's necessary, but if you want to take a long-term flier, go ahead.

Blue Jays trade 3B Scott Rolen to Reds for 3B Edwin Encarnacion and two minor leaguers

The Reds and Jays swapped third basemen, and the only real change with either one is that Rolen moves to a better hitter's park, while Encarnacion goes to a worse one. Their respective values in mixed leagues doesn't really change enough affect roster moves. Obviously, bid on Rolen this week in AL-only leagues, and on Double-E in AL-onlys. If you're scared off by Encarnacion's off-year, don't be. He was hurt for awhile, and he hit 26 homers last season. At 26 years old, he can still be pretty good. As for the prospects going to the Jays: Zach Stewart was a college closer-turned-starter until he got to Triple A recently — now he's a closer again. Stewart, 22, has a 1.67 ERA at three minor-league levels this season, and he's got 16 whiffs in 12 1/3 innings so far at Triple A. Just by looking at the numbers, I don't see why he couldn't factor into the late-inning mix for the Jays as soon as next season (though Baseball Prospectus says he profiles as a setup man). Make a bid on Stewart if you can in keeper leagues, because the only people really standing between him and some saves are Scott Downs and ... Josh Roenicke, almost 27, is another hard-throwing reliever, sometimes getting his fastball into the high 90s. He's whiffed more than a batter per inning at every level including the majors. If Downs gets traded somewhere before the 2010 season, Roenicke could be the beneficiary. Try to pick him up this weekend in AL keeper leagues. I think fantasy godfather Ron Shandler coined the phrase, "Draft skills, not roles." Both Stewart and Roenicke appear to have closer skills.

Red Sox trade 1B Adam LaRoche to Braves for 1B Casey Kotchman

Did you keep LaRoche in your NL-only league after the Pirates traded him? If not, he's on his way back to Atlanta. He's again worth a healthy bid in those leagues, and might even be worth a look in mixed leagues. In two weeks, LaRoche has gone from decent value to little value back to decent value. He'll play just about every day in Atlanta. Kotchman's miserable season just got worse, as he's got no hope of squeezing anyone out of the Red Sox lineup. This is like Screech from Saved by the Bell walking onto a movie set with DeNiro, Clooney, Pitt, etc. If you're in an AL keeper league, place a token bid on Kotchman with the hope that he'll play somewhere next season. I keep waiting for him to break out, and he keeps disappointing me.

Reds trade UT Jerry Hairston Jr. to Yankees for minor-league C Chase Weems

Hairston will probably play a couple of times a week for the Yanks, and steal a few bases. In an AL-only league, he's worth a bid. This one doesn't impact the Reds much, except to give the current outfield trio (Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, Willy Taveras) a few more at bats each. Hairston was traded for A-ball C Chase Weems, a 20-year-old catcher who's hitting .260 with one homer in 55 games. No, thanks.

Padres trade SP Jake Peavy to White Sox for SPs Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, plus minor leaguers Adam Russell and Dexter Carter

I think my initial reaction to this deal was "WHAAAAAAAT???!!!" Peavy is on the DL; he's not expected to make any rehab starts until mid-August, and isn't planning to pitch for the White Sox until September. How many FAAB dollars or how much roster space are you willing to commit to a guy who might give you five starts, and five potentially unhealthy starts at that? I said this a couple of months ago, and I'll say it again: Peavy is not worth your time in a mixed league unless you've got a bench spot sitting around doing nothing. In an AL-only league, I'd take a run at Peavy, but again only if I was able to stash him for the next 4-5 weeks. Keeper leagues are a different story. I'm in rebuilding mode in my AL-only league, but Peavy is unique in that he could appeal both to the contenders (for September) and the rebuilders (for 2010). He's one of baseball's top 10 starters, for crying out loud. I'm plotting my bid ... but since some of my fellow owners are probably reading this, I'll let you know next week how much the bid is. According to the White Sox Web site, rookie Carlos Torres might be the fifth starter until Peavy is ready to go. In mixed leagues, that news should be of no consequence to you. As for the four players going to the Padres: Poreda has the highest upside of the bunch. He spent some time in the Chicago bullpen this season after dominating Double-A hitters (2.38 ERA, 69 K in 64 IP). Poreda is 22, and could be a very good big-league pitcher — especially in cavernous PETCO Park. He's worth a look in NL-only leagues, and was ranked as the second overall prospect for the White Sox before the season by Baseball Prospectus. Definite keeper material. Richard, 25, is probably a fifth starter type, so that means he'll be an ace on the Padres, right? OK, I'm kidding. He's also an NL-only option, if only because of the ballpark. I'd imagine that Richard and Poreda will replace Edward Mujica and possibly Tim Stauffer in the Pads' rotation, though Poreda could be headed for some more seasoning in the minors. Russell, 26, has a 3.20 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings in Triple A this season. He throws hard, but there's probably no need for you to worry about him in any league. And now, the longshot. Carter is a 22-year-old, 6'6" lefty who has a ridiculous 232 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings between last year (rookie ball) and this year (Class A). By all accounts, his stuff is really good. You want a lottery ticket sleeper to stash for a few years? Carter seems like a good candidate.

Nationals trade 1B Nick Johnson to Marlins for minor-league SP Aaron Thompson

This trade snuck in just under the wire. Johnson hasn't really been a productive fantasy first baseman this season. In a surprising turn of events, he's stayed healthy enough to play every day, but he's hitting .295 with six homers, 44 RBI and 47 runs scored. Those are unacceptable numbers for a mixed league, and since there's no reason to expect Johnson's numbers to change much due to the trade, he's NL-only material. He might get a few more RBI opportunities batting second behind fantasy god Hanley Ramirez, but that's about it. The Miami Herald reported Friday that Jorge Cantu will move from first base to third base, while all-speed, no-hit 3B Emilio Bonifacio will become a "super utility" player. With an infield of Johnson-Dan Uggla-Ramirez-Cantu, a better description of Bonifacio would be "pinch runner." Waive him in all leagues, please. The Washington Times reports that Adam Dunn will come in from left field to take over for Johnson at first base in D.C., but the rival Washington Post says that Josh Willingham might get some time there as well. Either way, someone else needs to start in the outfield for the Nats, and tonight they recalled my man Elijah Dukes (.279, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 5 SB, .917 OPS at Triple A). Dukes has a long way to go to reach my 20-20 prediction ¿ he's a 6-2 man at the moment. Manager Jim Riggleman says he's going to play, so I'd grab Dukes in an NL-only league ASAP. The 22-year-old Thompson was 5-9 with a 4.11 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 75 Ks in 114 innings this season at the Marlins' Double-A affiliate. The Nats seem to think he'll be in their rotation sometime in the near future. Let them experiment with Thompson while you take a pass. FanGraphs provided the minor league stats.

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