Fantasy Auto

Sprint Cup drivers head to Las Vegas

RotoWire FANTASY PREVIEW, C.J. Radune
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NASCAR’s regular season got into full swing last Sunday at the 1-mile Phoenix International Raceway, a track more similar to the majority of the scheduled races than Daytona International Speedway. 

Roush Fenway Racing's Carl Edwards started from the pole position with Kurt Busch alongside him. The Daytona 500 hero, Trevor Bayne, was forced to start deep in the field after going to a backup car following a crash in practice.

The “big one” that is typically reserved for restrictor-plate races occurred early in the race at Phoenix and included 13 cars. While some drivers were out of the running at that point, others rushed to make repairs and returned to pick up an extra position or two. Edwards was one bitten, as were Jamie McMurray and a number of others. The afternoon suddenly became a very long one for those teams.

Once the race settled into a rhythm, it was Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch who were on point. Those two battled for the rest of the running, and the top five for much of the race included the usual cast of characters, such as Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In the end, it was Gordon’s afternoon as he took his first win in nearly two years.

This week, the series rolls into Las Vegas Motor Speedway where Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last six races, including last year's event. But can Kyle Busch find Victory Lane this week in the Sprint Cup? He has the best average finish among active drivers at the Vegas track, and it could be a showdown between him and Johnson.

UPGRADE

Jeff Gordon

Gordon was finally back out front Sunday at Phoenix. After Hendrick Motorsports slipped in qualifying and Gordon started 20th, he worked his way up to the front by the halfway mark. The No. 24 seemed to have speed on Kyle Busch, and Gordon made the winning pass stick in the final laps. It was the win he had been starving for since his last in April, 2009. While teammate Johnson has dominated Las Vegas lately, Gordon hasn’t been too shabby himself. His average start at the oval is 16.6 with an average finish of 10.2 in the last five races. Gordon has three top fives and four top 10s in that time. Statistics like that, with some momentum from Phoenix, make Gordon an attractive play this week.

Jimmie Johnson

Old “five-time” had a good Sunday afternoon despite not making headlines in qualifying. Once the green flag waved, though, Johnson picked his way forward and then settled into the top five as the laps wore down. He didn’t have the speed of teammate Gordon, but he was fast enough to pick up third place. The finish is Johnson’s first top five of the season and should set him off on championship run No. 6. With four wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, including last February’s Shelby American, there's no reason not to use Johnson this week. His average finish is 11.2 with three wins in the last five starts.

Kyle Busch

STP 400

Prerace coverage from Kansas begins June 5 at 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

 

Shrub dominated the NASCAR racing weekend. He won the Camping World Truck Series and Nationwide Series races over the weekend and was poised to sweep all three races for the second time in as many seasons, running in the top two for much of the race. In the end, Busch simply didn’t have the speed to hold off a hungry Jeff Gordon for his third victory of the weekend. There has been no better driver than Busch at Las Vegas over the last five races. He owns a win, two top-fives and three top-10s with an average finish of 7.8 in that span. That average is the best of the active drivers in the series and makes Busch one of the top fantasy picks.

Kasey Kahne

Kahne turned in a quiet but impressive performance at Phoenix, finishing sixth for his first top-10 of the season. Kahne avoided the trouble that caught a number of drivers and scored a solid finish in his part-time ride. Although he never made a lot of noise, he drove steadily and without mistakes, running in the top 10 for most of the afternoon. Kahne is only in the Red Bull Racing seat for this season, and scoring a solid top 10 will go a good distance to successfully advertising the seat for its next driver. Kahne holds an average finish of 13.0 in his last five Las Vegas starts and could be a good third driver for fantasy players this week.

Kevin Harvick

One of the first cars out of the Daytona 500, Harvick rallied Sunday with a solid run. He was consistently among the fastest cars throughout the race and held station in the top five all the way to the checkered flag, finishing fourth. Harvick has been the model of consistency during the last year and has picked up right where he left off. Continued top-10 runs will get Harvick to the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Las Vegas has also been a good track for the No. 29 Chevrolet recently. His average finish is 11.2 with two top-five finishes in the last six starts. Prepare to watch Harvick continue his pursuit of Johnson through the rest of 2011.

DOWNGRADE

Carl Edwards

Despite setting the Phoenix track record en route to the pole, Edwards did not have the afternoon he was hoping for. He did not lead the first lap, granting that honor to Kurt Busch, but also was involved in a heavy accident that forced him into the garage for extensive repairs. It was a long day for Edwards, who eventually returned to the track to earn some extra points. After the contact, he was destined to only achieve a finish of 28th. This week is uncertain for fantasy owners considering Edwards. His average finish is 12.4 in the last five Las Vegas events. That is a decent average, but not as good as a Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson.

AJ Allmendinger

Allmendinger is doing his best to return Richard Petty Motorsports to its former stature. He ran well Sunday, sticking around the top-10 runners in the opening stages and picked up a ninth-place result. It was a good finish for him, but Allmendinger has had a terrible run of races at Las Vegas. In two starts, his average start is 29.5, and his average finish is 29.0. That type of record is not good enough to warrant selecting him in your fantasy roster. He needs more time to get up to speed on the track and work with the team to continue climbing the speed charts.

Regan Smith

After encountering trouble, Smith could only manage to finish 34th Sunday afternoon. His strong run at Daytona now looks like a one-off show for the small Furniture Row Racing team. Smith may yet have a few tracks this season where he can impress again, but not at Phoenix or Las Vegas. Despite often being a decent third- or fourth-choice driver for fantasy owners, Smith’s record at Las Vegas just doesn’t hold up. His average finish is 24.7 in three starts at the track. He has no top fives or top 10s there, so it would be wise to save him for another week when he has a better opportunity to score points.

Trevor Bayne

Bayne’s fairytale ended at Phoenix. His dream start of winning the Daytona 500 was immediately followed with trouble every day of the following race weekend. In Phoenix, Bayne started deep in the field after having to change cars and ended the race prematurely in the wall after losing control in the early laps. Bayne has a lot of potential, but he needs time and experience to continue to develop. These first five races of the season will be invaluable to his development. Bayne’s only NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Las Vegas earned him a top-10 result. He could surprise again, but fantasy owners need someone more solid.

Jamie McMurray

A large pile-up on the Phoenix oval took McMurray out of a decent finish Sunday. He finished 18th at Daytona, but couldn’t manage any better one week later after the 13-car pileup forced him to end the day 35th. The immediate prospects don’t look too bright, either. Las Vegas hasn’t exactly been McMurray’s best track. In his last five starts, his average finish is only 20.2. And it's not a DNF that dragged that average, which makes the number even more distressing. McMurray showed up when it paid last season. With some added consistency, he could be a Chase contender in 2011, but he hasn’t made an effective jump off the blocks yet.

Tagged: Terry Cook, Brendan Gaughan, Tony Raines, Scott Speed, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Scott Riggs, Reed Sorenson, Ricky Rudd, Bill Elliott, Chad McCumbee, Greg Biffle, Jason Leffler, Casey Mears, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Tony Stewart, Dave Blaney, Juan Pablo Montoya, Bobby Labonte, John Andretti, Martin Truex Jr., David Reutimann, David Ragan, Carl Edwards, David Stremme, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Marcos Ambrose, Ken Schrader, Michael Waltrip, Joe Nemechek, Robby Gordon, Jeff Green, Ron Fellows, Mike Bliss, Boris Said, Jeff Fuller, P.J. Jones, Hermie Sadler, Jamie McMurray, Brian Vickers, Regan Smith, Robert Richardson Jr., Brad Keselowski, Scott Speed, Landon Cassill, Patrick Carpentier, Andy Lally, Jacques Villeneuve, Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Sam Hornish Jr., J.J. Yeley, AJ Allmendinger, Trevor Bayne, Kevin Conway, Tony Ave, Geoffrey Bodine, Mattias Ekstrom, Jan Magnussen


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