Travis: Week 14 picks, turkey day weekend TV viewer's guide
NOV 28, 2013 10:00a ET
It was a rough Week 13 for the picks, as we went 4-6, falling beneath .500 on the year. We're now 41-43 on the season.
If it's any consolation at all, we are not alone.
So far this year, Las Vegas sportsbooks have made $18 million.
But we still have two weeks of the season plus the bowls. It's time to ride. Here we go.
Happy Thanksgiving, by the way.
Texas Tech at Texas (-4)
Texas Tech is in the middle of a freefall, and the Longhorns have had nearly two weeks to get over the Oklahoma State thumping. Mack Brown's not going to lose his job until next week's loss to Baylor.
Pick: Take the Horns.
The Rebels are the much better team here, but they're favored by only three on the road at Mississippi State.
The line actually makes pretty good sense given that the Egg Bowl is tough to predict.
This one isn't, though.
Pick: Ole Miss wins by a touchdown.
Arkansas has lost eight straight games. Before the season started, I projected the Razorbacks to go 4-8 and Razorback fans were indignant.
My bad, I gave Bret Bielema too much credit.
Pick: Take LSU -- big.
Florida State (-27.5) at Florida
The last time Florida lost a game by 28 or more points was -- I have no idea when, but the only one I can remember was the Tommie Frazier Nebraska bowl game back in 1995.
The Gators are awful, but they still have a decent defense.
Sure, the FSU freight train could roll over the Gators 42-3, but this is an in-state rivalry game, and the Gators are playing at home.
Hell, last year Florida went on the road and upset FSU when no one gave them a chance in the game.
Pick: The Gators will lose but only by around 14 points.
Baylor (-13) at TCU
When's a good time to bet on a good team? The week after its worst performance of the year.
If Baylor had beaten Oklahoma State, this line would be nearly 20.
Pick: Baylor wins big.
Auburn believes in Gus Malzahn, is playing at home and had a bye week. Sure, Alabama's the better team, but we're talking about 11 full points.
That's at least four too many in this game.
Pick: Take Auburn. (And why not go ahead and take the Tigers +335 on the money line? Would it really shock you that much if Auburn pulled off the upset in this game?)
I believe Clemson is the biggest fraud in the top 10. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team since the first week of the season, way back in August.
Pick: Take the Cocks by a touchdown.
Tennessee (-4) at Kentucky and under 54
Remember how I told y'all last week to take Vandy and the under?
This week take Kentucky and the under. Kentucky is not much worse than Tennessee this year.
The Vols can't score on offense, and Kentucky has a mobile quarterback. That's all you need to know to realize this game is going to be very close.
Pick: Kentucky, under.
As much as I love Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M -- and as often as Mizzou has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory -- the Tigers are just playing too well right now.
A&M's defense won't stop Mizzou all day, which means Manziel and the offense will have to score 50.
Sure, they can do it, but all year long Mizzou hasn't given up more than 28.
Pick: Take Mizzou.
The Thanksgiving weekend viewer's guide
1. Texas Tech at Texas (7:30 ET, FOX Sports 1)
This weekend is absolutely loaded with great games.
Start it on Thursday night when you'll probably be looking for a reason to hide from your family -- or seeking a topic to discuss with the male relatives you aren't around that often.
2. Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:30 ET, ESPN)
Think of me while you're watching these games. I'll be with my boys at Disneyland.
By the way: Asked to list all the things that he was thankful for, guess what my five-year-old's first choice was in his school Thanksgiving booklet?
3. Arkansas at LSU (3:30 ET, CBS)
Les Miles is must-see television.
Even when, as is the case here, the game is going to be a blowout.
4. Oregon State at Oregon (7 ET, FOX Sports 1)
What's happened to Oregon?
Could the Ducks really lose three Pac-12 games this year?
5. Fox College Saturday (10 a.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
Just so you know, my mom says the show is awesome.
She also thinks everyone loves me, though, so it's probably a good thing she's not on Twitter.
Plus, Joel Klatt might make a joke this weekend. He's actually funny, I promise.
6. Florida State at Florida (Noon ET, ESPN)
You know how lots of Saturdays the best games are all set for later in the day? Not today.
Can the Gators keep it respectable? If not, is there any score that would get Muschamp fired? Like, what if Florida State won 62-3?
Remember back when we expected this game to be good? That seems like a long time ago.
Now Ohio State doesn't just need to beat Michigan to impress voters. The Buckeyes need to blow out the Wolverines.
8. Alabama at Auburn (2:30 ET, CBS)
One of the biggest Iron Bowls of all time.
9. Clemson at South Carolina (7 ET, ESPN2)
The Gamecocks are trying to notch a 10-2 record for the third straight regular season.
Meanwhile, Clemson is trying to avoid the most disappointing 10-2 season in Tiger history.
10. Texas A&M at Missouri (7:45 ET, ESPN)
Mizzou has the chance to be 11-1 and playing in the SEC title game.
If I'd made this prediction before the season started, you would have all told me I was crazy.
On the other side, Johnny Manziel's Heisman hopes are hanging by a thread. He needs a massive game. Can he deliver in his final regular season game of his career?
I can't wait to find out.
USC's favored in this one.
That means if Ed Orgeron can lead the Trojans to victory, he'll finish 7-1 as interim coach.
His reward? It could be the USC job.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families.