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Iowa Football: Three Bold Predictions In Outback Bowl

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:18 p.m. ET

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Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Here are three bold predictions for the 2017 Outback Bowl

The bowl season has brought a lot of craziness this year. Teams have scored a lot more and a lot less than expected, and there have been a couple of wild finishes. The Outback Bowl, featuring Iowa football and the Florida Gators, could be no different.

Even though many people think they know how the game will end, bowl season brings a lot of wackiness due to the month off. In a way, it’s like the start of another season. Teams don’t have the same momentum that they ended the season with and not playing a game for a month can lead to mental mistakes that aren’t usually seen at end of seasons.

It’s part of why college football bowl games are so fun. You never know what’s going to happen.

Both teams have great defenses and inconsistent offenses, yet that didn’t stop Minnesota from holding Washington State to 12 points or Wake Forest and Temple playing a game in the 30s. The point is that everything we think we know about teams are thrown out the window during bowl season.

That said, here are three bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Outback Bowl.

Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Both Teams Score 30+ Points

Iowa and Florida are tied for the 10th best scoring defense in the nation. They’ve both given up 215 points over 12 games — 17.9 points per game. In fact, Iowa has only given up 30-plus points three times and Florida has only done so four times this season.

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Plus, both teams rank outside the top 75 in points per game. Iowa has topped 30 points five times this season, but Florida only reached that mark three times. The Gators haven’t even topped 25 points in their past six games.

That said, nothing makes sense in bowl games. Washington State, who entered the Holiday Bowl against Minnesota averaging 40.3 points per game, was held to 12 points and didn’t score their first touchdown until 19 seconds remained in the fourth quarter.

Besides, both defenses have been hindered by injuries. Florida’s entire defense has dealt with injuries all year and Iowa’s secondary lost key cornerbacks in Greg Mabin and Manny Rugamba. Therefore, both teams could be susceptible to giving up big plays.

Not to mention, Iowa is getting back tight end George Kittle. He returned for Iowa’s season finale against Nebraska after missing two games, but he hasn’t been healthy most of the season, as he’s dealt with a foot injury.

Although, he should be healthier than he’s been in a long time after having over a month off. That will be extremely beneficial for an Iowa offense who lacks red zone receiving targets. Kittle proved his worth in that area against Nebraska, as he caught two touchdown passes.

Everyone is expecting a game in the teens or 20s, but a couple of turnovers and key special teams plays and this could turn into a high-scoring affair.

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Appleby Throws 3 Interceptions

Austin Appleby faced Iowa twice with Purdue. He threw two touchdowns and one interception in 52 pass attempts against the Hawkeyes. Iowa didn’t get the best of him while at Purdue, but they know how to game plan against him, nonetheless.

Still, three interceptions is a lot for a team missing two cornerbacks and a starting safety in Miles Taylor. Not to mention Iowa only has seven interceptions on the year and Appleby has only thrown three-plus interceptions three times in his career.

Appleby threw eight touchdowns and five interceptions in his eight games with Florida this season, but he enters the game coming off a three-interception performance against Alabama.

Sure, Alabama is arguably the best defensive team in the nation and loaded with NFL talent, but Appleby won’t enter the Outback Bowl with a ton of confidence. Plus, he might overlook a depleted Iowa secondary, and he’s unraveled in the past after a couple of mistakes.

The Hawkeyes still have Desmond King, who is looking to end his historic Iowa career on a high note, along with Brandon Snyder in the secondary.

Even Joshua Jackson, who recorded two tackles and gave up a touchdown against Nebraska, didn’t play terribly. He made a couple of mistakes, but he’s had over a month to prepare for this one game. Don’t expect him to be as good as Rugamba, but the stage shouldn’t be too big for him.

For as much concern there is around Iowa’s secondary, they have a perfect opportunity to surprise everyone and make a huge impact on the game. They’re not at full strength, but they’re not talentless, either.

Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa Mixes Up Play Calling On Offense

Iowa football’s offense isn’t exactly the most fun thing to watch in college football. They run the ball 38.4 times per game and rarely throw it more than 10 yards down field. Unless Akrum Wadley makes defenders miss with a juke or spin move, the offense doesn’t have a lot of highlight plays outside of touchdowns.

Bowl season is when teams loosen up, though. There is just one game left, therefore teams tend to call more trick plays and be more aggressive on offense. It’s not to say that Iowa is going to run a triple reverse with a hail mary at the end, but they might run a couple of double reverses or have a position player like Wadley or Riley McCarron throw it downfield.

Either way, expect Iowa to be more aggressive with their offensive play calling, even if it’s not with trick plays.

Greg Davis is known for running the ball straight up the heart of the defense on third-and-short. The defense knows it’s coming and everyone in the stadium knows it’s coming, yet he always does it. It’s led to Iowa converting only a dreadful 33.3 percent of third downs this season.

The Hawkeyes don’t need to take a shot downfield on third-and-one, but calling a play action or a run to the outside could catch the defense sleeping. Florida will be expecting a run with LeShun Daniels Jr up the middle, so why not try a home run play?

Iowa doesn’t need to run trick plays to win against Florida, but they can’t be predictable with their play calling because they won’t gain any rhythm on offense.