Preseason win totals: Choosing over/under on 25 top teams
Former Las Vegas bookmaker and founder of the betting site Against The Number, Chris Andrews has his opening win totals for the 2014 season. Let's pick sides on 25 of the nation's top teams, including who's pegged too low (Stanford) and too high (Washington). We'll attack from lowest to highest win projections.
Getty ImagesStacy Revere
25. Florida Gators: O/U 7.5
Will Muschamp needs a good season in Gainesville after going 4-8 in 2013, or the Gators will likely have a new coach in 2014. With new OC Kurt Roper, eight wins seems doable. Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky give UF four wins immediately. We'll give it wins at Vanderbilt and home against Missouri, and losses at Alabama and FSU. That's 6-2 with at Tennessee, LSU, vs. UGA (Jacksonville), South Carolina and a bowl game left to notch two more wins. Here's a vote for Florida getting it done. OVER.
24. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 7.5
It seems like the general college football fan wants Bobby Petrino to win at Louisville so bad, just so it'll spice up the ACC some. Here are five wins right off the bat in 2014: Murray State, at Virginia, at FIU, Wake Forest, at Syracuse. UL will lose at Clemson, at Notre Dame and home against FSU. So 5-3 with Miami, NC State, at Boston College, Kentucky and a bowl game left. Believe in Bobby! OVER.
Getty ImagesAndy Lyons
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys: O/U 7.5
This seems low for Oklahoma State, it does lose its starting QB and first-round CB Justin Gilbert among others. Let's give them wins against Missouri State, UTSA, Iowa State, Kansas and TCU and losses against FSU (Arlington), at Baylor and at Oklahoma. That's 5-3 with Texas Tech, West Virginia, at Kansas State, Texas and likely a bowl game. OVER.
Richard Rowe-USA TODAY SportsRichard Rowe
22. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 7.5
We're on a string of overs and here's another. UC Davis, Army, Washington State, Oregon State, Utah and at Cal are wins. Now Stanford needs two wins out of this group: USC, at Washington, at Notre Dame, at Arizona State, at Oregon, at UCLA, Pac-12 title game (?), bowl game. They're getting at least three wins. OVER.
Getty ImagesThearon W. Henderson
21. Texas Longhorns: O/U 7.5
North Texas, at Kansas, West Virginia and TCU are wins. UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma are losses. So 4-3 and needing four wins out of this slate: BYU, Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, bowl game. That's a tough go in Charlie Strong's first season. We'll give Texas seven wins. UNDER.
20. Clemson Tigers: O/U 8.5
Whether Clemson can get to nine wins or not will likely come down to if it can win at FSU, at Georgia or beat South Carolina at home. If it doesn't slip up outside those games (vs. Louisville? vs. North Carolina?), then it will already have its nine wins. OVER.
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY SportsRich Barnes
19. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 8.5
The tough games for Michigan State: at Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, at Penn State. It'll beat Jacksonville State, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers. The guess here is the Spartans get double-digit wins. OVER.
APJae C. Hong
18. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 8.5
Brady Hoke needs a good season in Ann Arbor, but nine wins is pushing it. We can see eight. To get to nine, Michigan would have to beat Penn State at home or win at Notre Dame, Michigan State or Ohio State without having any slip-ups. UNDER.
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY SportsTim Fuller
17. Texas A&M Aggies: O/U 8.5
To win nine games, the Aggies have to win one of these games: at South Carolina, at Alabama, at Auburn, vs. LSU. That's assuming it wins all the others, including at Mississippi State and against Missouri. No Johnny Football, no go. UNDER.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 8.5
At Clemson, at Florida, at Auburn, vs. Georgia, vs. Texas A&M. Do you see two wins in that group for the Gamecocks? If so, then Steve Spurrier is getting nine wins before a potential SEC title game appearance and bowl game. OVER.
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY SportsJeff Blake
15. Missouri Tigers: O/U 8.5
James Franklin is gone at QB, and in is Maty Mauk. The bigger issue may be replacing multiple stars on defense. To get nine wins, Mizzou has to win two from this group: at South Carolina, vs. Georgia, at Florida, at Texas A&M, at Tennessee. UNDER.
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY SportsMark Zerof
14. Georgia Bulldogs: O/U 8.5
With Hutson Mason taking over for Aaron Murray, the Bulldogs are in good shape. Good enough for nine wins, though? It'll come down to winning two games out of this group: vs. Clemson, at South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, vs. Florida (Jacksonville), vs. Auburn. There's also a potential SEC title game and bowl. Dawgs get it done. OVER.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY SportsDale Zanine
13. LSU Tigers: O/U 8.5
Can LSU find two wins from Wisconsin (Houston), at Auburn, at Florida, Alabama, at Texas A&M? We think so. OVER.
Getty ImagesChris Graythen
12. USC Trojans: O/U 8.5
The Trojans are well positioned in Steve Sarkisian's first season. They'll get to nine wins by finding one win from at Stanford, vs. Arizona State, Cal, at UCLA, Notre Dame. Bet here is they do better than that. OVER.
Getty ImagesEthan Miller
11. UCLA Bruins: O/U 8.5
Many think the Bruins are a favorite to make the four-team College Football Playoff field this season, which will take much better than nine wins. They need to find two wins out of this bunch: Texas (Arlington), at ASU, Oregon, USC, Stanford. That's before a potential Pac-12 title. Bruins get at least 10 wins. OVER.
Getty ImagesStephen Dunn
10. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 9
This is a generous number for the Sun Devils. They need two wins from UCLA, at USC, Stanford, Notre Dame, at Oregon State -- and that's assuming they win at Washington. UNDER.
9. Washington Huskies: O/U 9 (13 games)
The Huskies have the benefit of 13 games, but 10 wins feels like a lot to ask in Chris Petersen's first year at the program, particularly with the QB position still unsettled. If the Huskies can beat Stanford or UCLA at home, that would give them a shot. Otherwise, they should be fired up with an eight- or nine-win campaign. UNDER.
8. Baylor Bears: O/U 9
It comes down to this for Baylor: at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech (Arlington), vs. Kansas State. Win two of those, and the Bears go over. We believe in Art Briles' boys. OVER.
Getty ImagesRonald Martinez
7. Auburn Tigers: O/U 9
Can Auburn repeat 2013's success and return to the national championship game? Most have serious doubts, which is reflected in this number. If they can find two wins in a tough four-game bunch -- LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, at Alabama -- they'll get to 10 W's. We don't think the Tigers win the SEC West, but they accomplish this. OVER.
6. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 10
Have you seen Wisconsin's schedule? Ten wins is a high number, but the Badgers shouldn't have trouble clearing it. They can win 11 games before the Big Ten title game even with losing to LSU in the opening game. Seriously. If they win that, Wisconsin is in great position to go 12-0 and be in the middle of the playoff field. OVER.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY SportsJeff Hanisch
5. Oklahoma Sooners: O/U 10.5
The Sooners are a popular choice to win the Big 12 this year, and maybe even do it without a loss. But we don't see them going through Baylor, at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State unscathed. If they win two of those, they get to 11 wins (assuming no slip-ups elsewhere, of course). We'll say yes. OVER.
Getty ImagesStreeter Lecka
4. Ohio State Buckeyes: O/U 10.5
Wins: at Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, Cincinnati, at Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, at Minnesota, Indiana. Left on the schedule: at Penn State, at Michigan State, Michigan. The Buckeyes don't go perfect, but they win two of those three to get to 11 and find themselves in the B1G title game. OVER.
Diamond Images/Getty ImagesDiamond Images
3. Oregon Ducks: O/U 10.5
Will QB Marcus Mariota stay healthy? If so (he battled a knee injury last season), the Ducks can win however many games they want. Michigan State, at UCLA and Stanford will determine whether they clear the over here -- they have to win two of those. That's tough, and there are other sneaky games on the slate (at Oregon State, at Utah). Ducks get 10 wins. UNDER.
Soobum Im-USA TODAY SportsSoobum Im
2. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 10.5
There are 10 wins already on the schedule for Alabama, assumng it doesn't slip on the road somewhere (at Tennessee? at Ole Miss?). That brings us to at LSU and Auburn at home, and damn Nick Saban if he isn't winning the last one after the 2013 Iron Bowl. Guess here is Bama goes 12-0 and wins the league. OVER.
Getty ImagesStacy Revere
1. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 11
Do you believe Jameis Winston will have a consistent year on the field and a quiet one off it? Do you believe losing WR Kelvin Benjamin and loads of talent on defense won't hurt as much as it seems to? Then you believe Florida State can win every game it plays. It's difficult as hell to go perfect, though, and the guess here is FSU will find a couple landmines along the way, coming in at 10 wins. UNDER.
Have a different opinion?
Share your thoughts in the comment section and let fans know who's winning how many games in 2014.